CHAPTER TEN ALICE NABALAMBA NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES AND PRIORITIES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF URBANIZATION IN UGANDA AND TANZANIA Background: This paper seeks to examine the urbanization transition and its relation to population and environment dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study will focus on two countries that have had similar experiences in many respects but also offer important differences in their ideological approach to development. Uganda and Tanzania had very similar experiences particularly prior to their independence in early 1960s. They were both under British colonialism (Tanzania having become a British colony in 1916), had predominantly agricultural economies and inherited a common market (The East African Community of which Kenya was also a member). Interestingly, after independence, the two countries that had experienced a similar past, each took on a very different approach to economic development. In both cases, the focus was on nation building, social change and economic independence for the good of the general population. Uganda initially pursued market-based economic policies that placed a premium on individual incentives and basically promoted the colonial approach to economic development. In the late 1960s, the state adopted mixed economic policies that promoted import and export protectionist measures but still with a capitalist approach. Tanzania, on the other hand took a different direction of intent. After five years into independence, Julius Nyerere, Tanzania's leader, lost faith in the development institutions inherited from colonialism. In 1967, Tanzania adopted the Arusha Declaration on Socialism and Self-Reliance, marking a clear retreat from previous aid-driven politics characteristic of the other East African nations. The declaration entailed the abolition of private enterprise, the nationalization of private agricultural and industrial enterprise, and the reduction of the countrys dependence on external financing. Development according to Nyerere meant that people and not money were the motor force of social transformation. Development in this case meant initiating communal village settlements (Ujamaa Villages) in rural areas using local materials and simple technology. Government support to meet basic human needs, notably food, education, water and transportation would then be provided within these confines. This new socialist program had no industrialization agenda to speak of, and it was invariably anti-urban. In Nyerere's opinion, it would be unfair to focus development programs on urban centers since peasant production was the sole genuine source of marketable surpluses and thus national wealth. Nyerere's program is the most notable national spatial restructuring system in Sub-Saharan Africa. Originally a voluntary resettlement effort, by 1970, financial and technical assistance had been added as rewards for moving into the Ujamaa villages. By this time, only 9 percent of the population lived in the communal villages , thus by 1973, the government of Tanzania initiated a policy of forced resettlement --namely "Operation Tanzania". Becker, Hamer and Morrison, 1994, have commented that this operation was remarkably successful in redistributing population within and between territories. D. Oluwu (1990) adds that the program succeeded to the extent that it brought together scattered families into village settlements and enabled the government to reach the largest possible number of people. However, the consensus among others that have studied the program is that it was a failure from the point of view of agricultural productivity, infrastructure allocation and administrative management. It was also a very costly program. Thus one of its intended objectives--controlling growth of urban areas--was not achieved. Uganda, on the other hand, saw urbanization as a fundamental prerequisite to modernization and thus national development. In all the country's five year development plans following independence, there was considerable discussion on the costs of urbanization. The planning position was that investing in the rural areas where the population was highly dispersed brought with it special costs, particularly in the provision of social amenities (educational and health services). Yet a high concentration of population such as in urban areas would permit economies of scale in transportation, communication and provision of other social services. To the Uganda government, the debate over allocation of resources for urban or rural programs was a budgetary concern rather than one of humanistic reasoning. In addition, Uganda envisioned market oriented economic policies as the means of facilitating Africans to enter the urban business sector (that had been previously dominated by Asians and Europeans), and a means to redistribute income and wealth. Tanzania saw equitable income distribution, particularly in favor of the rural peasantry as more important than economic growth within the inherited colonial economic structures. Tanzania focused on rural based development to counter urbanization. With this same socialist agenda, Tanzania introduced another difference among her East African counterparts (Kenya and Uganda). Tanzania moved fast and far ahead of them in terms of arresting potentially volatile ethnic tensions that would otherwise result from regional inequalities. The Ujamaa village program allowed interaction among the various ethnic groupings from various regions. In addition, the introduction of Swahili as the national language, helped to down play all previous ethnic and language differences. Yet Ugandas failure to develop a program geared toward regional development to encompass regional differences triggered ethnic tensions of the magnitude we saw in the country throughout the 1970s and 1980s. These comparisons are important because they provide a starting point for understanding the urbanization transition, which for the purposes of this discussion can be traced back to the time of independence (1960s). Since the 1960s, a significant amount of literature has been generated on urbanization trends in Sub-Saharan Africa. Many authors have attributed the problems related to urbanization to Africa's obsession with "urban bias" policies. Michael Lipton (1977) in Why Poor People Stay Poor, critiques development theories and practice, by charging that their authors are responsible for problems related to urban biased development in many Third World countries. What Lipton really meant was that those that are informed by these theories in their practice, for instance international advisors on national planning, have stressed the importance of investment and production in export-oriented sectors (that are urban based for the most part) and industrialization and have encouraged heavy capital expenditures for urban infrastructure, such as ports and airport facilities, highways, communication systems, urban hospitals and educational institutions. Nevertheless, the debate on the implications of urbanization continues. There those that believe, especially amongst political economists that urbanization in and of itself is a positive sign of economic growth. There are also political consequences in that it has been proven to create a middle class in societies such as Uganda and Tanzania where there was none prior to independence. Perhaps what is still not clear is the causal correlation between levels of urbanization and economic development. In other words, does increased urbanization lead to high per capita incomes or does increased economic growth lead to urbanization? It would seem from Lipton's argument that economic growth particularly if national government policies are targeted for urban areas, occurs first and once the conditions in the urban areas become attractive, they then encourage rural-urban migration. In the meantime, because national budgets particularly in Africa can only be stretched so far, rural areas are neglected. Indeed, proposals for rural development by national advisors have focused on a limited number of projects such as large scale irrigation and other land questions which in some instances have rendered large populations landless. The focus on export-oriented sectors invariably implies that the emphasis in many countries is on national economic performance with no consideration for the human capital that is responsible for economic growth. This urban focus translates into rural underdevelopment. Again, because the chances of survival seem some how better in the city, mass emigration from rural areas becomes everywhere the norm. Demographic Transition: Now that we have established the background to the factors that influenced modern urbanization transition in Uganda and Tanzania, we need to put the concept in the context of population and environment dynamics. In addition to tracing the urbanization transition in these two countries, it is also the intent of this paper to identify symptoms of a deteriorating urban environment and to see if there is a direct link between these problems and the process of urbanization. In order to completely grasp these phenomena, there is need to look at urbanization in Uganda and Tanzania in the context of the larger demographic framework of the two countries. E. Kalipeni, 1994, informs us that the high population growth rates currently witnessed in Africa are primarily due to Africa's position in the second stage of the demographic transition. In this stage, crude death rates have suddenly decreased while birth rates have stubbornly remained high and sometimes experience an increase. Technological advancement in the medical area as well as economic growth are the reasons for this shift. We can safely say that both Uganda and Tanzania have experienced a dramatic decline in crude death rates including infant mortality rates particularly since the turn of the 20th century. These changes have had significant influence on population growth in both rural and urban areas in Tanzania and Uganda as well as other Sub-Saharan African states. (see fig 1 and appendix I). For many countries, the population has more than tripled in the last forty years and in a few cases, it has quadrupled.
FIGURE 1 Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95, New York, NY, 1994. There have been two schools of thought on the subject of high population growth rates both of which have had some impact on public policy in Uganda and Tanzania. The neo-Malthusian tradition, deeply rooted in the Western development thinking argues that population growth is detrimental to development, in that it will outrun world resources and finally lead to misery. The Worldwatch Institute under the directorship of Lester Brown have notably paid significant attention to hunger in Africa. In their series On the State of the World (1990-95), they point out that the food shortages so prevalent in Africa are an indication of the consequences that the world will be faced with unless nation states take immediate action in terms of regulating population growth. This argument also implies that population growth rate is currently far greater than the potential increases in food production. The second school of thought comes from a contrary tradition, largely anti-Malthusian. The debate in this case has been led by Third World structuralists who argue that population growth can in fact make positive contribution to economic growth and development. Population growth, they contend, can have beneficial effects on stimulating demand and encouraging technological innovation to accommodate the new growth. It is this tradition that has greatly influenced African leadership in the recent past. For many decades, African leaders generally encouraged population growth. The reasons have ranged from population and people being a development asset to a way of replacing populations lost during the various catastrophes experienced in the late 19th century and early 20th century. The anti-Malthusian tradition thus explains why neither Uganda or Tanzania has had a population control program until recently. Uganda : Up until 1992, the Uganda government did not have an explicit population policy and as such lags behind many Sub-Saharan African countries in national debate on issues of population growth. In fact in the 1966-1971 second five year development plan, the nation was less concerned with population pressure as a potential problem . Apart from the mountain regions of the eastern part of the country, elsewhere, population density was low. But the 1980 population census and the Atlas of African Affairs, 1980, both indicated an uneven pattern of population growth and concentration around the Lake Victoria region. The Lake Victoria region occupies the three largest urban conglomerations of the country (Kampala, Jinja and Masaka--see map 1) including the most productive agricultural region of the country. Today, however, there seems to be heightened concern in many African nations about the region's growing food deficits, increased external dependency (apparent in the size of Africa's foreign debt), growing poverty, low GNP per capita incomes and growing urban problems. These concerns are all directly related to the population question thus require a systematic program to deal with them. According to the World Bank country study, 1993, Uganda's population growth rate was estimated at 3.10% between 1990-1995 and if the current total fertility rate of 7.3 children per woman were held constant, then the country would experience an increased growth rate of up to 3.8% annually between 2010 -2015. A United Nations projection for 1988 places it at 3.58 percent while the World Resource Database - 1994/95 (WRD) places it at 3.00% in the same period (see fig. 2). FIGURE 2 Source of Data: World Bank, 1988, United Nations, 1989, World Resource Database, 1994. The UN and WRD data sources, however, also predict a slight drop in the growth rate between 1995-2000 or after 2000 to 3.51% and 2.68% respectively, and a relatively higher drop after 2015 indicating that Uganda is entering the last demographic transition state. The estimated fertility rate of 7.3 per woman, places Uganda among countries with the highest fertility rates in both Sub-Saharan Africa and among Third World nations in general. Increasing crude birth rate between 1970 and 1995 is equally worrisome. (see Fig 4) FIGURE 3 Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95: New York, NY, 1994 FIGURE 4 Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95, New York, NY, 1994. Tanzania: Tanzania, like Uganda has had no official population policy. However, the countrys second five year plan which initiated the Ujamaa program had implicit demographic and redistribution effects. By 1979, "Operation Tanzania" had successfully redistributed 79 percent of Tanzania's mainland population into Ujamaa villages. Other aspects of the development programs that had specific population content are those that related to health (including maternal and child health), education , rural development and spatial redistribution because at independence, the main obstacles to national development were seen as poverty, ignorance and disease. However, the Ujamaa program, failed as a rural development policy and in 1977, it was officially ended. The program failed partly because it became apparent after a few years that the economy could not support the plan objectives. In addition, the program failed to redistribute population evenly countrywide. Most of the resettlement took place in the northern and western (lake regions) and in the central (mountain region). Secondly, the program failed to control population movement between rural and urban areas as was intended. Prior to 1967, Tanzania's annual rural-urban migration rate stood at 7.05 percent. During the "operation Tanzania" program,--1970-1978, the rate dropped only slightly to 7.01 percent indicating that the program did not significantly improve rural conditions nor did it have a major impact on urbanization trends. During the same period, there is evidence of only 1 percent annual rate of out migration from urban areas to the countryside. Urbanization Trends: Although Uganda and Tanzania embarked on deliberate policies that initially affected urbanization trends, both countries are still highly rural societies (see Fig. 5). This fact would seem to indicate that there were other variables that accounted for urbanization trends that we are witnessing in both countries besides the specific programs each adopted. In Tanzania, as previously noted, the Ujamaa program failed as a rural development policy and invariably led to an increase in movement of population from rural to urban areas. In Uganda on the other hand, urbanization did not occur as quickly as the government intended. By 1995, less than 20% of Uganda's population resided in urban areas while close to 30% of Tanzania's lived in cities. Nevertheless, the urbanization transition in Africa as a whole is only recently emerging from its early stages.
FIGURE 5 . Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95, New York, NY, 1994 It has been suggested that the region is experiencing runaway urbanization. But there is no indication that the urbanization trend is any different from what other regions experienced during their urbanization transitions. The forces driving urbanization are identical. The difference, is that these forces are stronger in Africa than in most other places. In particular these forces (that can be traced back to the time of independence) include increased fertility rates, population movements, deteriorating agricultural productivity and growth in government labor force. In addition, urban growth in Uganda and Tanzania has disproportionately concentrated in capital cities and the principle industrial centers. In Tanzania, based on the 1978 population census, a significant proportion of net-migration into the country's urban centers is recorded in Dar-es-Salaam, the national capital. Like in most other African states, growth in Dar-es-Salaam is five times greater than in the next largest city and 50 percent of Tanzanias urban population is concentrated here. There is even evidence of negative growth in some of the smaller towns perhaps due to migration to larger cities such as Dar-es-Salaam or back to rural areas (during the Ujamaa program). Natural population growth in Tanzania's urban centers is also an intriguing phenomenon. The general assumption that fertility rates are lower in urban areas and generally higher in rural areas has been proven otherwise in Tanzania, particularly in Dar-es-Salaam. Data provided by the 1989 United Nations case study on population policy for Tanzania suggests that fertility increased between 1967 and 1978, with the total fertility rate rising from 6.6 percent to 6.9 percent and that crude birth rates rose from 47 per 1000 to 49 per 1000 in the same period. In urban areas such as Dar-es-Salaam, fertility rate increased from 4.3 percent in 1967 to 5.7 percent in 1978. This is also true for other towns such as Dodoma and Arusha (see table 1) TABLE 1 Urban Growth in Tanzania: Estimated Total Fertility Rates (TFR)and Crude Birth Rates (CBR)/1000 for selected towns: based on National censuses of 1967 and 1978. City/Town 1967 1978 TFR CBR TFR CBR Dodoma 6.9 48 7.4 52 Arusha 7.1 51 7.6 48 Tanga 6.9 46 7.1 47 Dar-es-Salaam 4.9 33 5.7 48 Tabora 5.5 40 6.2 45 Kigoma 5.9 43 7.1 52 Mwanza 6.9 49 7.4 51 Source of Data: United Nations: Population Policy Paper Number 22, New York, NY, 1989
an indication that perhaps rural norms had been transferred to urban areas as rural-urban migration occured. Life expectancy in urban areas was also much higher than in rural areas during the same period In Uganda, prior to 1971, the country's social indicators were comparable, if not better than, most countries in Africa. The country's economy was 90% agricultural based. The various regimes that governed the country between 1971-1985 radically reversed the economic and social progress the country had attained since independence. The civil strife that ensued following the first military take over in 1971, and the civil war that broke out following the elections of 1980, were largely based in the most productive part of the countryside--the region surrounding the country's capital (see map 1). This led to a decline in agricultural contribution to national Gross Domestic Product. Industrial productivity did not increase eitherand the country increasingly depended more on foreign assistance . With the deteriorated agricultural productivity, particularly in the 1970s and 1980s Uganda's urban population growth rate began to surge resulting primarily from rural-urban migration but also from population natural increase in urban areas. In addition, the military regimes of the 1970s and 1980s were characterized by large armies, which could be seen in the size of military barracks many of which were built during this period around the capital. Every regime recruited large numbers of military cadets from the countryside (particularly northern Uganda) who made the city their permanent home. These regimes were also characterised by large civil service bureacracies all in an attempt to legitimize the regimes. Inevitably, these policies are directly responsible for the rapid increase in urban population particularly in the Lake Victoria region. The growth, however, concentrated in the country's capital, Kampala as was the case in Dar-es-Salaam. Kampala's share of national urban population increased from 38% to 52 percent during this period. At the same time, as the countrys economic fabric deteriorated due to mismanagement, there was a decline in urban social services leading to a destruction of the urban infrastructure. It is estimated that during this period, GDP declined by 25 percent, exports (primarily agricultural products) declined by 60 percent, and imports except for military hardware declined by 50 percent. The large increases in defense expenditures led to further increase in foreign capital borrowing. Priorities of the 1960s decade that focused on providing for urban growth became insignificant as expenditures on important sectors such as education, healthcare, urban services were being reduced in favor of defence expenditures to maintain the 1970s and 1980s military regimes. Impact of Population Growth on the Urban Environment: The impact of population growth on the urban environment is still debatable in some circles. For instance the Ugandan government initially perceived population growth in urban centers as a prerequisite to modernization and eventually national development. Some economists have argued that urbanization in and of itself is not a negative indicator. It is in fact a positive sign on economic growth. Recently, however, there is growing indication that too much urbanization may not necessarily produce desired results of economic growth. In fact the situation in Uganda and Tanzania as will be seen later, indicates that economies of these two countries are incapable of supporting large numbers of urban population, let alone rural populations. The rate of urbanization assumes an equivalent level of job creation, housing supply, health care, educational and transportation facilities. Many African governments have not been able to reproduce economies with these qualities as was the case in the industrialized and industrializing nations. Thus the question of the role of population growth on urban environmental degradation has to be seen in light of state ability to provide the necessary infrastructure to support its urban populations. Uganda: The World Resource Database (1994/95) as well as the 1993 World Bank study on Ugandas social sectors provide a very dismal picture of the changing urban environment. The problems are two fold--increased urban population growth that is concentrated in the largest city, Kampala, and structural neglect. Ugandas urban population nearly doubled in the past thirty years, yet growth in the national economy has not kept the same pace. As previously noted, the countrys economic performance took a downward spiral during the 1970s and 1980s. Government resources to support population growth shrank as export earnings declined. National budgetary figures show that fewer resources have been devoted to providing and improving existing social or physical infrastructure in the last 20 years. The most visibly affected areas are access to clean water, garbage collection, sanitary and sewage facilities, and housing shortages (see table 2). These are very serious problems that can no longer be ignored as they have come to define urban centers of Uganda. TABLE 2 Access to Safe Water and Sanitary Facilities in Urban Areas Safe Water Sanitary Facilities 1980 1990 1980 1990 Uganda 45% 60% 40% 32% Tanzania X 75% X 76% Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95: New York, NY. The problems are more pronounced in the countrys capital, Kampala where 52 percent of the urban population resides, and the industrial hub of Jinja, where no major infrastructure improvement has taken place in the recent past. (see figure 6) The authors of the 1993 World Bank country report write that although the country is well endowed with fresh water and its resources, increased human activities both in city and countryside --deforestation, poor farming practices, industrial pollution and demographic pressures--have disturbed the equilibrium of the water cycle through increased run-off with minimal recharge to the underground and surface water reserves, thus impairing water quality. As a result it is estimated that only 60% of the countrys urban population has access to safe water supply, a situation made worse during the civil upheaval period. In the rural areas the percentage of population that has access to clean water within reasonable distance is even lower (because there are no water treatment plants). The World Resource Database (1994/95) also indicates that access to sanitary services has declined in Ugandas urban centers from an estimated 40 percent in 1980 to 32 percent in 1990. (see table 1) These numbers indicate an alarming condition of urban areas in Uganda, particularly in the larger cities.
FIGURE 6 Source of Data: United Nations, 1988, New York, New York Tanzania: As the case in Uganda, the declining urban environment in Tanzania is a combination of rapid population growth rate as well as government declining expenditures on new infrastructure and or maintenance of existing ones. The pervasive deterioration of urban infrastructure rose out of national policies that had been paved with the best intentions: the goal was to create a conflict free society (with equitable income distribution, avoiding exploitation of the rural sector by investing heavily in urban centers, and by avoiding the big city phenomenon). Even when the 1970s rural policies failed, and it was clear that urbanization was inevitable and on the rise, the government did not invest in new infrastructure beyond that the colonial government left behind. In 1980s, Tanzanias urban centers were characterized by shortages of basic necessities, rising poverty, and massive inflation. The WRD 1994/95 report does not provide data on access to safe water and sanitation facilities for 1980, but the figures for 1990 indicate that there is still a serious problem in many of Tanzanias urban centers. In the last two decades, Tanzania has become increasingly dependent on foreign financing for its development projects implying poor economic performance. The country's priorities are now being made based on the overall needs of the country as opposed to specific needs of a city or region. In other words, resources are spread thinly across the various national social sectors. One indicator of Tanzania's dismal economic situation is that once a net exporter of food in the 1960s, the country now spends a significant amount of its resources importing food items. Perhaps the most alarming problem in Tanzania is the growing concentration of the population in very few areas. According to the United Nations Population policy study of 1989, 60 percent of Tanzanias population is concentrated on 20 percent of the land. Conclusion: Unfortunately, in most African states, the urban environment is in a state of crisis. The problems are clearly related to infrastructure deficiencies as noted in Uganda and Tanzania but most importantly to population growth that cannot be absorbed by national economies. These problems are noticeably high outside the core areas of the cities (Central Business District) and are not only affecting the urban environment, but also productivity of urban areas. It is estimated that by 1980, at least 50 percent of Africas urban population lived in slums with no basic services (water, sanitation, healthcare, etc.) The city size inherited at the time of independence has grown many fold as new immigrants arrive and natural population growth expands, and yet, no accompanying infrastructure investments have been made in the same proportions for most countries. This paper has attempted to explain these problems in relation to the urbanization transition in two countries--Uganda and Tanzania. We began with a background of national policies that both countries adopted immediately after independence and their impact on population growth and urbanization trends. We discussed the theories that influenced national leadership in their effort to formulate population programs. We have also discussed urban population growth in the two countries as well as the impact of urbanization on the urban environment. The paper has tried to show that there is a relationship between population growth and environmental degradation. In both Uganda and Tanzania, the data indicated that there is a causal relationship between concentration of population densities in a few urban areas and the environment. Yet the two countries have made no major attempts to integrate a population policy in national economic planning. Today, all demographic indicators point to a continued high population growth rate with prospects of rise in urban areas and certain other regions of both countries. The possibility of decline in population growth as well as the improvement of the urban environment will occur only if there is a deliberate government commitment to reducing population growth. Likewise, urbanization growth will have to be dealt with in terms of the overall national population structure. Policy Implications: Local Programs: In 1992, the Uganda government in its rehabilitation and development plan stated that a national population policy would be formulated. The document states that: ....Government is keenly aware of the importance of population factors in socio-economic development. Of particularly concern is the effect of population increases on the health status and welfare of the people, especially amongst the most vulnerable groups such as mothers and children. In this regard, Governments long term objective is to promote the health and welfare of the population by reducing the prevailing high levels of morbidity, mortality, and fertility to ensure a balance between population growth, socio-economic development and the quality of life of the people.
However, the discussion of a national population policy has been made in very broad terms with no specificity. At the present time, the country lacks an organized family planning program along the lines of some leading African countries such as Zimbabwe. In view of the urgency to reduce the countrys high birth rates which are directly responsible for the high population growth rate, there would be need to address the crisis with a strategy with a long term effect that targets the reproductive sector of society. With this strategy the country will be able to deal with several other problems including poverty at both individual and household level, reproductive choice, reduction in the number of children born to HIV infected parents (who would die and leave behind orphans), maternal and child health, and rapid population growth. Attempts do deal with population problems with economic measures have only partially been successful and they have been very short term strategies. In Tanzania, we have seen that coercive measures to control growth in urban areas were not successful. There were no counter measures to control growth in rural areas. Several years later, the Tanzanian government attempted to relocate the capital--Dar es Salaam to Dodoma (in the center of the country) in the hope of diversifying development and relocating business and therefore people. Strategies such as this, however, are very expensive for countries that have many other pressing priorities. In addition, they only resolve the high urban density question, but not the root cause of the problem--natural population increase. External Programs: It is expected that urban growth rate will begin to stabilize around the year 2000 in both countries. (see Fig. 8) FIGURE 7 FIGURE 8 Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95, New York, NY, 1994 and United Nations, 1988, New York.
Several reasons can be identified as contributing to the decline in the urbanization trend. First, WRD and UN data indicate that as we move into the Twenty-first century, overall population growth rate for Tanzania and Uganda will begin to decline (see Fig 1, 2, 7). This will have an impact on urban population growth resulting from natural increase. Secondly national economies of both countries are shifting into directions that are beginning to have an impact on the urban population. Since the early 1980s, upon the advisement of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund both Uganda and Tanzania governments adopted Structural Adjustment economic programs (SAPs) that were designed to restore economic structures of countries that were experiencing poor micro and macro economic performance (depictable in their large external debts as well as large deficits). The SAPs have had several effects. They have forced governments to shrink their large bureaucracies, encouraged decentralization of government and other business functions from capital cities to secondary centers and have resulted in reduced government role in parastatal bodies (state owned corporations). Besides the large bureacracies, parastals were another major strain on national governments in terms of their large resource consumption in form of surplus workforce, marketing and distribution expenditures. The SAPs were also designed to resucitate Africa's declining agricultural sector in order to absorb those populations that the public sector would have eliminated. It is expected that as a result of the decentralization effort, more jobs will open up in other towns thereby attracting unemployed populations from capital cities. While migration behavior cannot be precisely predicted, the long term expectation resulting from the SAPs is a reduction in rural-urban migration as people find more remunerative activities in the agricultural and rural sectors. Monitoring and Evaluation: Towards Comprehensive Planning: In order to reduce birth and fertility rates, there are several areas that must be tackled at the same time. For instance, developing literacy programs that would target women and at the same time increase their employability in productive sectors could be a starting point. When women are employed in market productive sectors, it is expected that they will begin to view reliance on their off springs as sources of household labor in a different vein. The people of Uganda and Tanzania have long been aware of the increasing cost of maintaining a large family, but the economy has not been able to provide an alternative. National programs that promote equal opportunity to education need to be developed. The Uganda government has been working on such a program for the last five years and it is expected that by 2005, all children in Uganda will have access to primary school education. Not only does society need basic education, there is also need to target those areas that have a direct link to peoples lives, such as environmental education. Even in this area, a national policy needs to include women at the forefront. African women are in direct contact with the natural environment on a daily basis, such that understanding the causes of degradation is very important to safe guarding it. In many communities, they find themselves with the responsibility of passing on new knowledge to their children and to society as a whole. Thus farming techniques and other ways of reproducing life in ways that would sustain the ecosystem would have to be introduced to women. There are no easy solutions to population and environmental questions. Local and external intervention programs discussed above are merely experiments for which concrete effects may never be realized. Many domestic and foreign entities would have to be involved in determining long lasting solutions to the problems created by the interaction of population and the environment. At the same time, the various entities would have to integrate their determinations in order to develop comprehensive plans that would have sustainable effects. In addition, the programs developed need to have the capacity to be monitored on a regular basis so that ideas can be sythensized, failed ideas rejected and new ones added. The national economies of both Uganda and Tanzania are incapable of managing the complex nature of population and environment dynamics, thus the international community needs to intervene from time to time. Intervention needs to be constructive and not coersive as has been the case in many places. Constructive intervention would, for instance, constitute technological expertise to monitor progress of and improve specific population and environmental programs. APPENDIX I Population in Average Annual Millions Population Change 1950 1990 1995 1980-85 1990-95 2000-05 Angola 4.13 9.19 11.07 2.63 3.72 3.05 Benin 2.05 4.62 5.40 2.82 3.11 2.91 Botswana 0.39 1.24 1.43 3.40 2.92 2.69 Burkina Faso 3.65 8.99 10.35 2.50 2.81 2.69 Burundi 2.46 5.49 6.34 2.80 2.88 2.53 Cameroon 4.47 11.52 13.28 2.83 2.83 2.84 Central Afr. Rep. 1.31 3.01 3.43 2.58 2.62 2.31 Chad 2.66 5.55 6.36 2.28 2.72 2.47 Congo 0.81 2.23 2.59 2.82 3.00 2.67 Cote d'Ivoire 2.78 11.98 14.4 3.86 3.68 3.28 Djibouti 0.06 0.44 0.51 4.46 3.01 2.88 Equatorial Guinea 0.23 0.35 0.40 7.22 2.55 2.41 Ethiopia 19.57 49.83 58.04 2.12 3.05 2.84 Gabon 0.47 1.16 1.37 4.01 3.31 2.64 Gambia, The 0.29 0.86 0.98 3.01 2.60 2.34 Ghana 4.90 15.02 17.45 3.58 3.00 2.81 Guinea 2.55 5.76 6.70 2.23 3.04 2.86 Guinea-Bissau 0.51 0.96 1.07 1.87 2.14 2.12 Kenya 6.27 23.59 27.89 3.56 3.35 3.12 Lesotho 0.73 1.75 1.98 2.78 2.47 2.39 Liberia 0.82 2.58 3.04 3.17 3.32 3.08 Madagascar 4.23 12.01 14.16 3.06 3.29 3.06 Malawi 2.88 9.58 11.3 3.42 3.31 2.42 Mali 3.52 9.21 10.8 2.85 3.17 2.91 Mauritius 0.49 1.08 2.34 1.09 1.00 2.68 Mozambique 6.20 14.20 16.36 2.27 2.83 2.87 Namibia 0.51 1.44 1.69 2.94 3.18 2.91 Niger 2.40 7.73 9.10 3.36 3.26 3.02 Nigeria 32.94 108.54 126.9 3.20 3.13 2.95 Rwanda 2.12 7.03 8.33 2.87 3.40 3.09 Senegal 2.50 7.33 8.39 2.81 2.70 2.59 Sierra Leone 1.94 4.15 4.73 2.32 2.66 2.54 Somalia 3.07 8.68 10.17 3.2 3.18 2.99 South Africa 13.68 37.96 42.74 2.58 2.37 2.07 Sudan 9.19 25.2 28.96 3.11 2.78 2.65 Swaziland 0.26 0.75 0.86 3.07 2.68 2.64 Tanzania 7.89 25.99 30.74 3.28 3.36 2.99 Togo 1.33 3.53 4.14 2.93 3.18 2.93 Uganda 4.76 17.56 20.41 2.72 3.00 2.68 Zaire 12.18 37.39 43.81 3.18 3.17 2.98 Zambia 2.44 8.14 9.38 3.58 2.84 2.56 Zimbabwe 2.73 9.95 11.54 3.22 2.97 2.48 Source of Data: World Resource Database, 1994/95, New York, NY, 1994
APPENDIX II Map 1: Urbanization in Uganda: Major Cities Map 2: Urbanization in Tanzania: Major Cities REFERENCES Apter, David E. and Carl Rosberg (eds.): Political Development and the New Realism in Sub-Saharan Africa, University Press of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 1994. Becker, Charles, Andrew Hamer and Andrew Morrison: Beyond Urban Bias in Africa: Urbanization in an Era of Structural Adjustment, Heinemann, Portsmouth, NH, 1994. Boesen, Jannik, Kjell J. Havnevik, Juhani Koponen and Rie Odgaard (eds.): Tanzania: Crisis and Struggle for Survival, Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, 1986. Friedmann, John: Life Space and Economic Space: Essays in Third World Planning, Transaction Books, New Brunswick, NJ, 1988. Group de Demographie Africaine: Population Size in African Countries: An Evaluation, Volume II, Paris, 1988. Hansen, Holger B. and Michael Twaddle (eds.): Changing Uganda: The Dilemmas of Structural Adjustment and Revolutionary Change, Ohio University Press, Athens, OH, 1991. Kalipeni, Ezekiel (ed.) Population Growth and Environmental Degradation in Southern Africa, Lynne Rienner, Boulder, CO, 1994. Lipton, Michael: Why Poor People Stay Poor: Urban Bias in World Development, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass, 1977. World Bank: Uganda: Growing Out of Poverty: Country Study, 1993, Washington D.C. __________: Uganda: Social Sectors: Country Study, 1993, Washington D.C. Uganda of Government: 1961-1965, 1966-1971 Five Year Development Plans, Entebbe, Uganda. United Nations: Case Studies in Population Policy: United Republic of Tanzania, 1989, Population Policy Paper Number 22, New York, NY, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, 1989. NOTES