POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT DYNAMICS:
TEN CASE STUDIES

RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE CHAPTERS


Kazuhiro Arai
	What I have discussed in the paper is the history, the transition
and the impact of the labor migration of Yemen.  Yemen is a typical
country whose economy depends on the remittances from workers living in
foreign countries.  This phenomenon has a close relationship with the
issue of population and regional economy, as one of the reasons for the
migration is demographic pressure and the lack of job opportunities.  It
is also related to the politics of the region.  The large scale of labor
migration and return migration may be caused by political transition to
some extent.  The return migration at the time of the Gulf Crisis is the
typical example of how the politics influence the trend of labor
migration.  My discussion and suggestion is mainly in light of these
factors.
	Among the papers presented in the lecture, Kuramitsu's study is
the most closely related to my topic.  He examines the urbanization of the
Middle East, and makes a model of the relationships between the percentage
of each sector and population growth or urbanization.  The result of the
simulation is rather interesting: the number of the people in the service
sector directly influences the fertility rate.  According to the result,
the increase of migrant laborers may cause the increase of fertility rate,
as the workers returning from foreign countries tend to employ themselves
in the service sector.  This conclusion, however, must be evaluated very
carefully because the result of Kuramitsu's study is probably the only one
found in the world so far, and I did not study the direct relationship
between the number of migrant laborers and that of people working in the
service sector.
	I did not suggest the model of the system of labor migration in my
paper.  I tried to make the model by using Stella.  However, I finally
gave up, because I could not find out the relationship among the factors
which seem to be related to the transitions of labor migration.  In other
words, I could not explain those relationships by using equations.  Some
books show the model of labor migration, but without concrete data and
thus without concrete relationships among the factors expressed by
equations.  The essence of the problem can be divided into two kinds.  One
is insufficient data.  As I stated in the paper, the information on labor
migration in the Middle East is very limited.  Thus one cannot obtain the
data enough to construct a model.  However, this kind of problem is
surmountable, if a large scale of census is conducted, and reliable data
is provided.
	Another kind of problem is more problematic and seemingly
insurmountable.  As I stated in the paper, the trend of labor migration is
influenced by the political situation of the region to large extent.
First of all, the status of migrant workers depends on the policy of the
receiving countries of the foreign workers.  Although the receiving
countries greatly depend on migrant laborers, these workers are not  given
any political power.  Therefore the change of policy is made for the
benefit of the receiving countries, though there are the negotiations
between the sending countries and the receiving countries to some extent.
Second, the political situation is still unstable in the Middle East.
Nobody had predicted the Gulf Crisis in 1990 and the subsequent wave of
return migration.  This unpredictability is the essence of the problem of
labor migration.
	There are two opposing view on the function of the labor
migration.  One is that the migration functions as the safety valve for
the economy of the sending countries of migrant workers.  When those
countries have surplus laborers, labor migration can relieve the problem
of unemployment and economic stagnation.  This is the case in former North
Yemen, as the country somewhat encouraged the labor migration.  This
theory, however, can be applied to the countries which have enough
laborers for development programs or industrialization.  The other theory
is that the labor migration hinders the development of the country.  In
former South Yemen, labor migration caused the shortage of workers needed
for state development, and thus the country had to receive the foreign
workers from the East African countries.  As I discussed in the paper, the
government of former South Yemen restricted the number of the migrant
workers leaving the country from 1973.  Even in North Yemen, the decline
of agriculture caused by the shortage of labor force became one of the
issues in the country.  In my view, labor migration has negative effects
on the sending countries in the long run.  Because of the unpredictability
of the transition, depending on the migrant workers makes the country's
economy unstable, and vulnerable to the policy of the receiving countries. 
	Labor migration in the Middle East seems to be in the transition
period now.  Even if one excludes the influence of the Gulf Crisis, the
boom of migration to the Gulf States was going to decline, and substantial
number of workers had already returned to their home countries in the
beginning of the 1990's.  If the transition theory can be applied to this
phenomenon, now is the middle of the transition from the state of heavy
dependence on the remittances from the migrant workers to that of stable
development and independent in terms of economy.  Therefore now is the
most dangerous and unstable period of the phenomenon.  In the case of
Yemen, the economy is in serious stagnation.  The rate of inflation and
unemployment is still high.  These problems, according to the theory, will
be solved toward the completion of the development of the country.  The
economic condition may turn better in the future.  However, it should not
be the revival of the boom of labor migration.  What is needed is the
sustainable development of the country and the whole region.

Hideo Kuramitsu
	Every student select a very interesting topic, and I learned a lot
from each of them.  First of all, I found that most of them focused on the
country where they are from or are carrying researches in their major.
That gives them do further researches in comparison with me, because they
know how to get the information through various approaches.  Of course,
they are familiar with the geography as well as the history and the
culture.  It seems to me that they can answer questions persuasively in
their presentation.  
	As for their researches, some of them used the economic transition
by the distribution of Gross Domestic Product, which I also used in my
research.  Through their researches, I found that GDP per capita in
developing countries has been decreased over time due to the population
growth.  This finding is the same as mine.  One thing which I learned from
them is that one of them used the political transition in order to know
when rapid changes occurred in some categories such as the GDP trends and
some agricultural factors.  This transitional period gives us clear
information why those things happened.  	Second, most of other
students compare the categories among countries in the world.  It is sure
that such maps make us easily understood to what extent of the category in
the country is situated in the world.  Since I mainly focused on the
relationship between the distribution of GDP and population factors in
Egypt by using STELLA II, I can carry researches into further studies
regarding my topic after the example of their maps comparing among the
world. 
		Third,  a couple of other students used STELLA II,
modeling the situation which they are focusing on.  Since I also made a
model which makes it sure the relationship between the distribution of GDP
per capita and population growth factors, their modeling interests me a
lot.  However, it seems to me that they met a difficult situation in
making the model, because they have their own flows based on their
assumptions.  I also met a difficult situation in linking between the
distribution of GDP per capita and population growth factors; however, I
overcame this situation by using the results from multiple regression
analysis.  It seems that such a statistical analysis would be very useful
to link different factors in modeling as well as to create some
assumptions in the flow.   
	Finally, I feel a little regretful to focus on the effect of the
GDP to the population growth due to time constraint.  After the example of
the researches by other students, my topic would go further, and their
approaches would bring about better relationships with other factors in
the STELLA model.  For example, relationships with other countries such as
trade and migration can be or should be included into my model.  I hope my
research will be also useful for other students and will bring about
better analysis regarding population growth in the near future.

Peter Murchie and Rebecca Spector
	Many of the papers presented in this term's Population-Environment
Dynamics course reflect transitions occurring across a number of sectors
in countries across the world.  The papers refer to transitions in
demographics; political environments; economics; natural environments;
agriculture; forestry; and others.
	One unifying theme among many of the papers is that a lack of
progressive policies intended to accurately respond to these transitions
is evident in countries throughout the world.  Our paper on organic
produce consumption in the United States strongly suggests a lack of data,
awareness, and hence effective agricultural policies at the national
level.  Such ignorance has resulted in the implementation of agricultural
policies which discourage and dismantle small-scale and organic farming
production and consumption.
	Other papers also refer to similar deficiencies on the part of
government and its ability to respond to population-environment
transitions.  For example, in Ecuador, the current transitions in
deforestation are leading to unsuitable farming conditions; unsustainable
rainforest practices; increased inefficiency and environmental
degradation.  This paper refers to the failure of the Ecuadorian
government to provide an adequate infrastructure for these transitions.
The result is that impacts on indigenous people and the environment are
ignored.  Other papers referring to rapid urbanization trends in Thailand,
Egypt and Korea indicate extreme transitions, such as movements away from
agriculture toward industry.  These papers also reflect a lack of
governmental recognition of the potential impacts of these transitions, as
well as a lack of proper governmental research and support.  Papers on the
water crisis in the Middle East also refer to a lack of effective
political support and policy intervention in dealing with these tremendous
transitions.
	As evidenced by all the papers presented in this course, there are
a number of important transitions occurring across the world that are
affecting people and the natural environment.  A better understanding of
these transitions will hopefully lead to appropriate policies that will
result in smoother transitions that have minimal effects on populations
and the environment.

Tamana Nishiguchi
                   Since the concern of my paper is the impact of policy
on the agricultural transformation in Burma, I will indicate the
agriculture in relation with the population in Burma and Vietnam, which
Luejit Tinpanga described. Policy-makers in the governments of both Burma
and Vietnam had carried out inward-looking, seclusive national policies.
Thus there will be some similarities.
                   Geographically, Burma possesses twice as large an area
as Vietnam, (676,577 sq. km. in Burma against 331,700 sq. km. in Vietnam).
However, as can be seen in FIGURE #1, the total population of Vietnam
exceed twice over that of Burma. Despite of the two restrict population
policies, the growth rate has still risen sharply upward. On the other
hand, the growth rate of Burma demonstrates moderate growth without any
population policies. Considering land area and the upward tendency of
population, Vietnam has the potential to suffer from population pressure
in the near future. 
 

Total Population.  Burma and Vietnam.

Source: World Resource Database The economy of Vietnam, similar to Burma, is dominated by agriculture, which provide sixty-five percent of employment and shares about thirty percent of Gross Domestic Products. Unlike Burma, however, Vietnam has occasionally experienced severe food shortages, especially in the South, since World War II. Since 1961, the Vietnamese government has introduced Population Redistribution Policies, aiming at mobilizing the population by allocating people for the industrial sector and for the agricultural sector. This mobilization was one of the contributors to the alleviation of food shortages through the input of labor force into the agricultural sector. However, a set of these population redistribution policies also caused the natural disasters due to a lack of capital and inappropriate frameworks. The similarities in the features of both governments seem to imply that a set of policies is inefficient. These polices resulted in worsening the existing serious problems rather than benefiting the populace. Although Burma and Vietnam have suffered from lack of donor country assistance and many inherited constraints, it is necessary to emphasize an 'efficient' allocation of human and natural resources to alleviate poverty. Rasolofoson Allain J. Population growth is evidently underlying several situations we can nowadays encounter on our planet. This point appears to be the main link between the different projects which are presented in the class for Population-Environment Dynamics (NRE 545/EIH 575) during the Fall Semester 1996. In fact, many countries, mainly those in the Third World, are actually in their early demographic transition after having experienced an epidemiological transition sometimes during the last century. In my own project about the Case of Deforestation in Madagascar, although it is worth to be considered, population growth is still a secondary element since the density is relatively low in several regions of the country. However, the same strong attraction towards the bigger cities we can observe in the modern society has just started an urban transition in the 1980s, desarticulating the economy traditionally based on agriculture. On this matter, when presenting the Urbanization in Egypt, Hideo Kuramitsu mentioned the International Conference on the Habitat whose goal has been to prepare the global community to an urbanized life when facing the resulting deteriorating living environment. The policy of Population Redistribution through the creation of New Economic Zones, as applied in Viet-Nam (Luejit Tinpanga), cannot be implemented in Madagascar because of the attachment of the Malagasy people to traditional values and kinship; the land on which a family has been living is most of the times an ancestral legacy that she cannot easily depart from. Moreover, a passive resistance against the governing authorities has been expressed through the History into reticence to new technology or other innovative techniques, hindering any modern improvement such as the Green Revolution which was introduced in Burma (Tamana Nishiguchi). Nethertheless, the southern Malagasy tribes have the propensity to migrate internally, driven by sporadic financial needs and always to come back their homelands after a period of absence. Such movement has the same motivation as the labor migration in South Yemen (Kazuhiro Arai). The alarming deforestation of Madagascar has not followed a rational process as it might be found elsewhere. For instance, the Ecuadorian forests (Julie Rodriguez) are depleted mostly because of a need of space for modern structures such as fuel oil exploitation, urban areas, or other communication structures. In Viet-Nam, it results from the population pressure as well as from an internal economic policy which lessens agricultural activities in favor of industriali- zation. For Madagascar, it has a remote origin in the country's history and a relatively long process of social behavior change needs to be adjusted with a required rapid intervention. Julie Rodriguez It was amazing to see the commonalities among the various projects this semester. What seemed to be incredibly diverging topics in the beginning, boiled down to a few underlying themes and challenges. This illustrates the real value in studying other regions, cultures, environments to develop better strategies on the home front. The themes that emerged from the projects, in relation to my study of Ecuador, all evolved around the challenge of providing for a growing population when financial resources and natural resources are limited. In several countries discussed governments have attempted to redistribute their populations for a variety of purposes. Security was one purpose. For example, Lipchin discussed the attempts of Iraq and Israel to populate regions with particular ethnic groups to maintain political power. This is similar to Ecuador's attempt to populate the Amazon to keep Peruvians from infringing on Ecuador's border. Pressure on urban centers was another reason for population redistribution. Tinpanga discussed the relocation of populations in Vietnam to reduce the pressure on urban centers and to encourage the poor to cultivate "unproductive" lands. Governments seem to ignore the impacts that this redistribution will have on the local indigenous populations and the environment. In addition, infrastructure is often inadequate or completely lacking. Sasaki pointed out the opposite problem in Thailand where populations were migrating from rural areas to the cities. Kuramitsu discussed a similar situation in Egypt's cities. Thus, the urban environment cannot support its new inhabitants because the infrastructure, such as sewer and sanitation facilities, is grossly inadequate. Another challenge observed is inefficient use of resources. For example, Smith discussed the use of large amounts of water wasted farming regions of the desert in Egypt. This is partly due to resistance to change and failure to update to newer, more efficient methods and technologies. In Ecuador, similar challenges arose in the area of agriculture; improved farming methods would preserve the soil and perhaps much of the rainforest. Nisiguchi raised the issue of alienability of land in terms of land use efficiency. As in Ecuador, laws that make title difficult to obtain discourage investment in and preservation of land; consequently, land is used inefficiently. Murchie and Spector offered an attractive and realistic approach to agricultural reform that could help increase resource efficiency and help alleviate some of the difficulties being experienced in the countries of this monograph. Organic farming helps protect our health, our environment, and our resources. Of course the projects also manifested appreciable differences among the regions studied. These differences do not mean that information cannot be transferred. It merely means that the information must be molded for situation at hand. Incidentally, the differences allow for more experimentation and creativity that can lead to better solutions in the long run. Overall, there is a need to address the population and its needs on a more holistic level that considers social, economic, and ecological impacts. In the past, reforms have frequently been too narrowly focused and too short-term oriented. Indeed, these are grand plans, but sensible goals. Hitomi Sasaki By 2020, the ASEAN regional will have moved to become one of the largest and most prosperous of the Asian trading blocs. During much of the period after 1995, the growth of GDP for the original six members - Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Burunei Darussalam and the Philippines - have continued at between four and seven per cent per year. For three additional members - Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam - rates of GDP growth have been lower but will begin to accelerate in the period after 2010 to catch up to the original ASEAN six. As the region benefitted from the opening up of the world trading system, from a less-regulated global financial environment and particularly from the growth in Southeast Asian demand, the nine ASEAN countries will exhibit rapid growth and become a free trading bloc with a population of close to 690 million. Therefore, it is favorable to consider the policy to sustain the development in Southeast Asia, which stimulates economies with narrowing the regional imbalance within each country. According to the Population Policy and Socio-Economic Development Plan in Vietnam by Leujit Tinpanga, Vietnam faces same problems as Thailand in terms of the centralization of population in urban areas. Even though the urban population growth rate in Vietnam have dropped during 1970-1980, the urban population has increased each year since the end of World War 2 with annual average growth rate of 3.31 per cent. If making comparison with Thailand's annual growth rate of 2.8 per cent, the population concentration is more serious problem in Vietnam than in Thailand. In her paper, there is no clear comment in regards to the problems caused by urbanization transition, however, it is obvious that Vietnam will follow the same step as that of Thailand if there is no effective policies in early stage. Thailand has expanded its economies after bringing the direct foreign investments since 1986, which stimulated the urbanization transition to Bangkok. If Vietnam starts to receive such foreign aids especially targeting the industry and service sectors, the urban centralization will be inevitable. Vietnamese government may have succeeded in terms of family planning and population distribution, however, it is crucial to enhance the regional development plan/policy to encourage the development of rural areas. From this perspective, the government should refer to the National Economical Social Development Plan or Metropolitan Regional Structural Plan in Thailand to avoid the serious population concentration beforehand. The ability of ASEAN may largely depend on the extent of the success of all the governments, working with the world business community and international aid in regards to not only to retain its current position as one of the world's fastest growing regional economies but also to continue improving the quality of life for its citizen. From this point of view, both Thailand and Vietnam will be coping with urban problems while taking advantage of the positive features of urban regions. This will require new approaches, new policies and new administrative governmental arrangements. Julie Smith The Nile River Basin is one distinct geographical unit containing nine separate countries which share a common river resource and face several common difficulties. As I wrote my Nile project I focused on this region as a singular area that faced rather unique problems and needed narrowly directed solutions. But while I listened to the project presentations of other colleagues I began to see that the Nile region is not unique. Many economies and regions have limited resources and many other pressing priorities that restrain the development of wise resource practices. The similarities between different regions of the world and the problems they face are astounding. Most projects examined the relationship between human society and the environment using concepts of transition theory. Transition theory states that a society moves through periods of rapid change followed by periods of relative stability; it provides one way of thinking about the complex dynamic that exists between populations and their environments. Societies may move through many separate but related transitions at one time. Although the regions studied for our projects spanned the globe, several commonalities exist among all, most of which are transitions. The overriding similarity is population growth, or the demographic transition, which generally appeared to drive the other transitions. From the Nile region in East Africa to Ecuador to Southeast Asia rapidly increasing populations are putting pressure on natural resources. The demographics of many countries are rapidly changing as well. Shifts from rural to urban areas and from agriculture to industry are occurring around the globe: these changes represent urbanization and agricultural transitions. The agricultural transition is the next most prevalent commonality between the different studies. As population increases, the need to provide more food also grows. Many countries are facing agronomic problems which are worsened by inefficient practices and lack of proper technology, as is the case in the Nile Basin. Finally, the trend toward urbanization pushes many transitions, such as forestry, epidemiology, and energy, forward. As more people move into urban areas, population density increases, the need for goods and services increases, and in turn so does the pressure on resources like water and forests. Some of the other common themes I recognized included: political instability and lack of appropriate governmental leadership to move countries out of negative situations and into more stable ones; lack of education and proper training to help many poverty stricken people improve their livelihoods; international debts caused by unsound economic policies and practices and narrow views toward interactions with other countries or regions. The importance of global factors in the analyses of transitions was downplayed by administrations in many regions. Most encouraging, however, was that many projects focused on policies and ideas which could help reverse or slow current and potential negative trends caused by many concurrent transitions. Looking beyond one's own borders for help in solving problems was a common theme. The international community and international policy will play an increasingly greater role for many nations as the push for a global economy increases. The challenge is to create policy that is effective in bringing about positive change, remembering that policies enacted in any one region impact other regions. Nations around the globe must begin to view themselves not as sovereign and distinct entities, but instead as parts of a whole, working together for mutual benefit. Many countries need to look and think beyond themselves when addressing social, political, and environmental problems. Because most nations have limited resources, pooling their assets and working toward cooperative agreements could help solve problems both within and transcending national boundaries. This is true for the Nile basin states and was also implied for many other regions in the projects. Although many problems were identified in the studies presented, the problems are not insurmountable -- individuals and creative ideas can make a difference in our world. Our class represented a microcosm of the global community, just as the regions we studied do, and it was great to hear innovative ideas for mitigating problems found across the planet. Luejit Tinpanga My project is about population policy and socio-economic development in Vietnam. The context of my paper includes an overview of population situation in Vietnam which links to Vietnamese leaders' policy making. Apart from demographic impact, urbanization is a sector that I believe it has been affected by population growth and high population density. This part can be related to Sasaki's project which is a case study of urbanization transitions and its impact in Thailand. Sasaki's project illustrates Bangkok as a primate city, the only large city in Thailand as mentioned in section of Characteristics of Urbanization in Thailand. Tourism industry, the Vietnam War, and better education have brought people to seek their better condition of living and opportunities in Bangkok. In case of Vietnam, apart from Hanoi, Vietnam has Ho Chi Minh City as Southern center. However, majority of population resides in these cities together with high population growth rate cause socio-economic problems. Sasaki's project and mine show both Thai and Vietnamese governments' attempt to solve these problems and improve socio-economic conditions. The Thai government has adopted the National Economic Social Development Plans to guide the way to achieve socio-economic development including population growth control. The Eastern Seaboard Project and Metropolitan Regional Structural Plan are also the Thai government's intention to distribute population to suburban regions and reduce population in Bangkok Metropolitan area. Similarly, the Vietnamese government has employed family planning programs in order to reduce population growth and population redistribution policy to reduce high population density in deltaic plains. This also implies the importance of the government in managing the country's population policy and socio-economic development direction no matter what ruling system that country has.