ABSTRACT
Mark Schmidt

Transition dynamics describes a process of development. It is characterized by a sigmoid curve in which there is at first a stage of slow, relatively stable growth. Following is a period of exponential, volatile growth, and finally leveling off towards a more stable level. This paper investigates how transitions have led to the emergence and spread HIV/AIDS.

The first cases were recognized in 1981, and HIV/AIDS has quickly become one of the biggest public health concerns in human history. Currently, 30.6 million people are infected; 20.8 million of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa. Uganda has over 2 million people infected, with the majority of the burden being felt by the younger ages.

The origin of the current epidemic has to be understood in the context of many factors occurring in Uganda throughout the century. The history and politics of the country, as well as transitions in urbanization and industrialization give a framework in which to study the three major hypotheses of HIV/AIDS emergence.

To study the impact of HIV/AIDS in the future of Uganda, it is also necessary to consider other variables. In particular, the population transition and the structure of the African family will serve to influence and be influenced by the current disease epidemic.

Due to limits in available resources, current policy recommendations addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic are focused on interventions preventing the spread of the virus. However, to fully address the problem, it is necessary to look at more basic factors as well as the influences of different transitions.