Current Projects and Working Papers

(all titles are preliminary and comments are welcome)

Applied Statistics

Randomization Inference and/or Matching for Reliable, Credible Causal Inference

Attributing Effects to A Cluster Randomized Get-Out-The-Vote Campaign. (with Ben Hansen ). University of Michigan, Dept of Statistics Technical Report # 448. October 2006. (pdf version here)

Attributing Effects to A Cluster Randomized Get-Out-The-Vote Campaign: An Application of Randomization Inference Using Full Matching (with Ben Hansen ) prepared for presentation at the Political Methodology meetings, July 2005

Attributing Effects to a Get-Out-The-Vote Campaign Using Full Matching and Randomization Inference (with Ben Hansen ) prepared for presentation at the MPSA meetings, April 2005

Miscellaneous Fun Stuff

Cycling Involvements: Frequency Domain Time Series Analysis and Political Participation in the USA Very drafty and still waiting for data on monthly mail to and from Congress. This paper contains a basic description of some frequency domain time series analysis as applied to a political science topic.

Political Behavior

A Framework for Studying the Dynamics of Political Participation. An Appendix for this working paper.

Civic engagement of the World War II generation. (with Suzanne Mettler and Theda Skocpol)

Words to Math: Representing Theoretical Concepts Mathematically --- The Case of "Symbolic Racism" (with Cara Wong )

The True Story of the Literary Digest Poll of 1936 (with Adam Berinsky )

Threat, Mobilization, and Participation: The Impact of Crossburnings on Political Behavior in North Carolina

Black Threat, Christian Threat, Black Context, Christian Context

Unpacking Power Threat Theory (with Cara Wong )

Published Papers

Journal Articles

Attributing Effects to a Cluster Randomized Get-Out-The-Vote Campaign (with Ben Hansen ) Journal of the American Statistical Association Forthcoming. The replication paper archive (with many thanks to Mark Fredrickson) can be downloaded from here (~62MB, updated Sep 2008) .

Covariate Balance in Simple, Stratified and Clustered Comparative Studies (with Ben Hansen ) Statistical Science 2008, Vol. 23, No. 2, 219-236.

EDA for HLM: Visualization when Probabilistic Inference Fails (with Katherine Drake). 2005. Political Analysis . August 2005 Advance Access Online. in print Fall 2005. The Sweave source file and datasets used to produce this article are here (updated Jan 2007)

"Using R to Keep it Simple: Exploring Structure in Multilevel Datasets" Fall 2004. The Political Methodologist. The Sweave file and datasets used to produce this article can be downloaded as a zipped archive here

Analyzing the 2000 National Election Study (with Nancy Burns, Michael Ensley, and Don Kinder). 2005. Political Analysis . 13(1):109-111.

"Does Moving Disrupt Campaign Activity?" August 2004. Political Psychology. 21(4):525-543.

"Designing Multi-level Studies: Sampling Voters and Electoral Contexts" (with Laura Stoker). 2002. Electoral Studies 21(2):235-267. This file includes the correct Figure 3 (published as an Erratum in the next issue of Electoral Studies).
(Figure 1 in color -- PDF, about .3MB)
Supplementary results and simulation programs are available on this page .

"Issues in Analyzing Data from the Dual-Mode 2000 American National Election Study" (with Michael Ensley). NES Technical Report #64. (April 2003).

"Black Threat and Christian Fundamentalist Threat: A National Election Study 1997 Pilot Study Report" 1997 NES Pilot Study Report

NES Pilot Study Efforts to Measure Values and Predispositions. NES Technical Report #18. (February 1995)

Dissertation

An overview and summary of my dissertation here