By: Evan Knott

Last November 5th, Bill Clinton was awarded a second term to serve as President of the United States. The media touted Senator Dole's campaign as one of the worst in recent history. However, Dole's loss to the Clinton campaign juggernaut was not a defeat of Republican issues but rather a failure to effectively communicate the numerous suspicious facets of the current administration. As has been the case since November of 1994, Bill Clinton's relevancy as the waffle-king will only continue to diminish as his second term gets under way.

A brief overview of the election outcome suggests several key reasons to attribute Clinton's victory over Senator Dole. In a nutshell, the overbearing gender gap continually plagued Dole's campaign despite numerous noble attempts to reach out to women voters at the Republican National Convention and through opportunity scholarships and tax cuts. While women voted 54% to 37% in favor of the President, male voters' 44% split for both Clinton and Dole were unable to counteract the gender gap. In addition to failing to reach out to female voters, Senator Dole ultimately failed to rally the support of traditionally Republican target groups- namely gun owners, the upper class, and religious American families.

But how did Bob Dole end up running such a poorly coordinated campaign? Apparently, his 15% across the board tax cut plan was not credible with the majority of voters. Always a deficit hawk, Dole championed cutting federal spending to reduce the budget deficit over ambitious tax cuts during his 30 year tenure in Washington D.C. Once Jack Kemp was added to the ticket, who served as former President Ronald Reagan's supply-side architect, Dole's economic credibility quickly started to diminish. The unfortunate irony of Dole's tax cut plan's demise is that the Clinton campaign, after drastically raising taxes despite its 1992 campaign promise to cut middle class taxes, was successful in portraying one of the most historically honest and reliable members of the Senate as irresponsible and conniving. It was precisely this ability to outsmart and manipulate the American public that enabled the Clinton campaign to glide into a second term in one of the biggest political comebacks in American history.

After the 1994 midterm elections, it was clear to Clinton and his staff that his presidency was of little relevancy for the remainder of his first term. With few options, Clinton brought in his long time friend and former gubernatorial adviser Dick Morris to salvage the remainder of his term. With Morris' help, the Clinton administration veered toward the center, embracing a largely moderately conservative agenda throughout much of 1995 and 1996. Just two years after his wife's embarrassing attempt to take over 1/7 of the U.S. economy by socializing health care, Clinton declared that "the era of big government is over" in his State of the Union address to congress. What is most surprising about Clinton's facade as a centrist Democrat pushing a moderately conservative agenda is his multi-million dollar smear campaign against its architect. Over 25,000 negative and untruthful television ads were broadcast nationwide against the Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R, Ga.), the figurehead behind the Republican's Contract With America. The Clinton administration was quick to tout its success in ending welfare, signing the line-item veto into law, and striving for a balanced federal budget. However, the American public was quick to forget exactly where these ideas had originated. President Clinton twice vetoed Republican attempts to overhaul the failed welfare system before he finally signed it into law months before the election. All in all, President Clinton signed over 65% of the Contract With America into law. The Republican majority of the 104th congress kept its promise surrounding the Contract as well, successfully bringing each of its components to a vote in both houses. Yet, the Clinton campaign along with AFL-CIO president John Sweeney wasted no time in attaching Newt Gingrich to every Republican candidate up for reelection. With his sharp rhetorical skills and smooth personality, Bill Clinton needed to do nothing more than serve as a buffer against the so-called Republican extremists and take credit for every positive action that came out of the conservative agenda.

Although his plan appears to have worked for the moment, Clinton will face many difficult struggles in the near future of his second term. In the first place, he received more or less 49% of the popular vote when less than half of all eligible voters bothered to turn out to the polls on election day. Clinton has won both of his elections by a mere plurality, which will make declaring a voter constituted mandate nearly impossible. Furthermore, the Teflon president will likely have to finally face up to the endless scandals and allegations surrounding him and various associates of his administration. With his days of "faking right then sprinting left" over, Clinton must not only remain at the political center for the remainder of his presidency, but also continue to move rightward if he hopes to avoid angering too many Republicans into pursuing further investigations.

Already Clinton is attempting to amend ties with the GOP controlled congress. Rumors of several prominent Republican senators and governors filling empty cabinet positions is the current buzz around Washington. Former New Hampshire Republican Senator William Cohen has been rumored to be a top candidate for the CIA directors chair, while Massachusetts' Republican Governor Bill Weld said he would start the position of Attorney General immediately. The most prized possession would be snatching up former General Colin Powell for the Secretary of State's seat, which could potentially diffuse a Republican bomb against Al Gore's likely candidacy in the year 2000. The President will demonstrate great nerve should he ask his former opponent Bob Dole to head up a bipartisan task force to overhaul the nearly bankrupt Medicare system.

Medicare reform is the one issue that may come back to haunt the Clinton presidency when it comes time to write the history books. Never before in American history has a candidate engaged in such raw demagoguery of a single issue as Bill Clinton has. The Democratic National Committee ran literally thousands of untruthful ads against Republicans trying to dampen increases in Medicare spending. Only in the eyes of Bill Clinton is a 7% increase in entitlement spending from the previous fiscal year a "slash, cut, or attack on Medicare spending against our senior citizens." While this barrage of negative ads may have resulted in the 49% to 41% distribution of votes against Mr. Dole among senior citizens in the past election, the problem now rests completely upon the President's shoulders. Luckily, the Republicans have learned their lesson and will be much more patient in tackling national problems before the President has made the first move. "We aren't going to announce our agenda until we see the white of his eyes," Senate majority leader Trent Lott (R, Ms.) stated. "Mr. Clinton has earned the first at-bat." For Clinton and the Democrats to realistically address Medicare, they will ultimately have to forego spending and working on his initiatives. With a ten seat Republican majority currently residing in the Senate, Mr. Clinton and his Democratic associates will certainly have a difficult time in pursuing anything other than a modestly conservative agenda.

The underlying message the voters voiced during the past election was the desire for a easily manipulated president to carry out a moderate, common sense conservative agenda. Senator Dole may have lost the battle, but the Republicans as a whole certainly have not lost the war. Rather, ideological liberals once comprising the president's cabinet as well as the organized labor movement appear to be the real losers. Clinton's irrelevancy and position as compromiser-in-chief will only continue to increase throughout the remainder of his second term. With the numerous investigations and scandals plaguing his administration coupled with the turmoil faced by every president during his second term, Bill Clinton might have wished the election's outcome would have favored Mr. Dole after all.