Death of a Revolution

by Jacob Oslick

When Republicans took the majority in '94, they brimmed with excitement about their present and hope for their future. They spoke of a national realignment with conservativism and proudly brandished their Contract With America. Sadly, though, their plans to reduce the size of government failed to start a revolution. In time, they grew complacent.

After the Great Budget Fiasco of 1995, Republicans crawled back into the ideological shell they wore as a 40-year minority. Too timid to attack the expanse of government, they only cringed when President Clinton used the words "healthcare" or "education" to defend yet another new program. In short, bold ideas took a backseat to re-election concerns. In consequence, their old conservative base grew disillusioned and preferred staying home on Election Day to re-electing the pseudo-Democrats. Combined with the Monica Lewinsky mess, this complacency yielded this year's November disaster and the fall of one Newt Gingrich. As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, wealthy Americans failed to turn out in droves to back the GOP. Long a key constituency for Republicans, 62% of Americans making over $75,000 a year sided with 1994's Gingrich Revolutionaries. However, this year only 53% voted Republican, a fact owing in part to the failure of the 1998 GOP to discuss measures aimed at taking more then a speck from Federal kitty. True, wealthy Americans are a small constituency, but their lack of support was likely the deciding factor in many close races lost by the GOP (as in Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, in the affluent suburbs of Philadelphia, which barely threw out incumbent Jon Fox). Exit polls show that although turnout (38%) was roughly the same as four-years ago, this time it was Democrats who turned out in much greater numbers. Elsewhere, the GOP's single-minded focus on the president's domestic affairs probably cost them votes. As GOP Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania stated after the election, "If you make it a referendum on a president with a 67 percent approval rating, as they [Congressional Republicans] tried to do, you shouldn't be surprised if the election goes against you."

Lastly, Gingrich remained a haunting factor for the GOP, as Democratic ads throughout the country routinely linked Republican candidates with the unpopular Speaker. In fairness, Gingrich brought much of the criticism upon himself, appearing jaded when he bragged about shutting down the government because Clinton made him sit at the back of Air Force One, or meat-headed in claiming that men are biologically engineered to "go out and hunt giraffes." But however much the media demonized him as a crackpot, it was likely Gingrich's abject honesty to the American public that contributed most to his downfall. Fortunately, his presence shall not burden the Republicans in future elections, but they will miss his dynamic leadership.

So what does November teach us? First, Republicans should return to their core issues of cutting taxes, reducing government and restoring personal responsibility. When Democrats attack them for cutting taxes (it allegedly "endangers the surplus"), Republicans need counter by pointing out that 1) at over 40% of GDP, taxes now consume a higher share of the American economy then at any peacetime period in history, and 2) Democrats also "endanger the surplus" with reckless spending plans (see Clinton's threat to shut down the government if the GOP didn't approve more money for schools). When Democrats talk of "education" and "healthcare," Republicans should blast them as pawns of the NEA and supporters of "reform" so burdened with regulations that it prices many Americans out of the insurance market. Lastly, Republicans should end the Clinton investigation as soon as possible. Despite legitimate impeachable offenses, further inquiry would use political capital Republicans need to pass measures reducing the size of government. If Republicans do not reassert themselves as the party that defends freedom and promotes capitalism, then 2000 looks grim. Without accomplishing these things, Republican hopes of taking back the White House and dominating Congress will fall faster then President Clinton's pants in front of Arkansas court reporters. MR

This article was published in the 18 November 1998 edition of The Michigan Review (Volume 17, Number 4).
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