The Michigan Review

U-M Prof. Tanter Studies "Rogue Regimes"

by Matthew W. Fogarty

As President George Bush presided over the fall of the Berlin Wall and with it the era of the East­West Cold War the United States and its allies found themselves at a loss with regard to international affairs. For the first time in more than a half century, there was no singular enemy and no specific "clear and present danger" threatening U.S. interests. In August of 1990, however, Saddam Hussein stepped into the spotlight. Hussein ushered his troops into Kuwait, "reclaiming" the nation as their own. The rest of the Iraq­Kuwait story is well known. The military strength of the Iraqi government was not so much the trigger of fear among the allies as was the personality of the man now known simply as "Saddam." In his new book, "Rogue Regimes," (St. Martin's Press, $29.95) University Professor Raymond Tanter explores the nature of Saddam's government among his examinations into the post­Cold War threats facing the U.S. and its allies.

In seven detailed chapters of political and geographical history that are spiced with witty anecdotes, Tanter identifies, analyzes, and then vilifies the six members of his "rogues' gallery" Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea. All six of these nations, he writes, have repeatedly made their way into the State Department's annual report "Patterns of Global Terrorism." Additionally, each member has a remarkable record of permitting the trading of narcotics. However, the book is not so much a history lesson, but a lexicon of the looming threats to the national security of the U.S. and its allies.

To illustrate that threat, Tanter ingeniously interweaves historical information and political science theory. For example, he employs theories of deterrence and coercion to explain American policy toward North Korea. In this case, deterrence theory would suggest that to avoid a military conflict with North Korea, the U.S. should pursue a policy of coercion by show of force.

Another focus of the book is the relation of the leaders of these nations to the threats their countries present. Tanter explores the nature of each leader under the rubric of "personality, politics, and policies." In discussing Iraq, he digs into the character of Saddam Hussein, whom he sees as being much like the main character in his favorite movie, The Godfather. Tanter
recounts one anecdote about Saddam's vile temper and the unfortunate luck of his in­laws. After Saddam married his second wife, one member of the bride's family suggested to his own wife that he did not consider Saddam a legitimate member of the family, unaware that Saddam had taken the liberty of bugging their room. The husband and wife were accordingly rushed through the Iraqi justice system to a life sentence in jail.

In determining exactly how large a threat each of the rogue regimes poses to the security of the globe, Tanter works through four themes. First, he identifies the role of threat perception in relations with these rogues. He suggests that the U.S. must take caution in exactly how it interprets the actions of these nations. Second, he points to the opportunities, diplomatic or otherwise, that might arise out of crisis situations in related areas. Third, Tanter outlines the politics that surround and restrict these rogue leaders. It would be very difficult, for instance, for Hafez Al­Assad and his Syrian government to cooperate with U.S. peace efforts in the Arab­Israel conflict simply due to the political ramifications within his constituency and the balance of the Arab world. Finally, Tanter investigates the policies that drive the leaders of the rogue regimes, and the resulting implications for the U.S. foreign policy.

Tanter combines these myriad factors in analyzing the threats that the U.S. must consider in setting its foreign policy agenda. Rogue Regimes provides a fascinating, in­depth account of the Cold War, as well as a lesson on the severity of relations with rogue regimes. As he exclaims in one of his political science lectures, "The United States must understand that the threats of the twenty-first century involve rogue state leaders who are more dangerous than any Cold War conflict!" MR

This article was published in the 22 April 1998 edition of The Michigan Review (Volume 16, Number 10).
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