Tech Track

A compilation of technology-related tidbits summarized from magazine and newspaper articles.

In the age of the mainframe, the desktop computer was little more than a messenger translating signals from the central computer. As PCs and distributed computing came into vogue, however, more of the "brains" of the system moved to the user's desktop. With that movement came the rise of companies such as Intel and Microsoft. Now, in the age of the Internet, theorists are starting to predict that this evolution will shift into reverse. They say that most applications, as well as the majority of the world's processing power, will someday reside on networks (e.g., the Internet), and that the need for power on the desktop computer will recede.

Is it possible that in the future the desktop PC will be little more than a "dumb terminal?" Forbes ASAP columnist George Gilder thinks so, and he feels that this trend will be driven by the Netscape Internet browser and Sun Microsystems' new Java programming language. The new Sun language, developed by suddenly famous programmer James Gosling, "emancipates software from computer architecture." This means that in the future it will not be necessary to use any specific type of operating system in order to take advantage of widely available software. Furthermore, a user's software could reside anywhere on a network, not just on the machines where it would be used. Such an advance would put a major dent in Microsoft's desires to exploit its operating systems and its "installed base," and it would give a large boost to the importance of the Internet. Both factors lead Gilder to predict that Marc Andreessen of Netscape will someday supplant Bill Gates as the most powerful man in the computing world.

Gilder realizes that Gates is beginning a "massive move" onto the Internet, but he notes that Microsoft is beginning a year behind and currently has no market share. Further, he points out that Microsoft could be hindered by Joy's Law (named for Sun co-founder Bill Joy), which states that "most of the bright people don't work for you - no matter who you are." In the fast-moving technology world where Joy's Law reigns, Gilder feels that Microsoft's size and dominance are not an asset but a liability.

In 1990, Bill Joy himself conceded the first five years of the 1990s to Gates and Microsoft, even selling much of his stock in Sun to buy Microsoft shares. At the same time, however, he prophesied that around 1995 everything would change due to a "breakthrough" which could not even be imagined in 1990. Gilder believes that the breakthrough was the World Wide Web. He says that "almost overnight, the CPU and its software have become peripheral; the network central." In the end, Gilder notes that Gates may remain "king of the desktop," but that he will rule over an "emigrating empire." And he sees Andreessen as the man with the most influence over the domain where Gates' empire is headed.

Responses to Gilder's column were printed in the October 9, 1995 issue of Forbes ASAP, and they came from some of the most powerful leaders in the computing industry. Of course, each person's level of agreement with Gilder's theory was directly related to their level of involvement in the Internet and inversely related to their dependence on the PC industry. Despite the biases, however, the responses are very interesting, and quotes from some of them are listed below:

Scott McNealy, CEO, Sun Microsystems: "Here's how we see [Java] playing out. Three computer science students from Berkeley hacking code late at night will create a Java word processing program. Let's call it `NetWord.' They put it on their Web server at http://www.netword.com. It will be free because these kids want fame first, knowing that it will lead to fortune as with their hero, Marc Andreessen ... So you're shopping for a new word processing program. You've seen the ads offering [Microsoft] Word on sale for $249. Your buddy sends an e-mail and says check out NetWord. You take a test drive. It works! Cool! You are not alone. A few million others have heard about NetWord. Now the makers have a following and in a few months they start a company and offer NetWord 2.0 for a mere $2 per copy ... Suddenly, the OS that controls the CPU on your desktop is a legacy of an old paradigm ... This means that Microsoft is now a severely overpriced personal productivity tools applications vendor with an OS business that is no longer able to "captivate" the end user by being the only platform to run desired applications."

Nicholas Negroponte, Director, MIT Media Lab: "Here is where George is wrong. The next Bill Gates is not Marc Andreessen ... There will be many browsers, hundreds of them. Today I'll bet on Niki Grauso's, which will come out in 37 languages. Browsers are the surface of a much deeper phenomenon. Sun Microsystems has it right: Java ... Netscape is but one awning on the Virtual Boulevard of Digital Cafes. Java is the coffee."

Larry Ellison, CEO and Chairman, Oracle Systems Corp.: "The center of gravity is indeed shifting away from the personal computer and toward the network - specifically toward the Internet's World Wide Web ... The information age will move from dawn to full daylight. And our world will be changed. But probably not by Netscape ... When a clearly superior browser becomes available, people will replace their Netscape browser just the way they got it - with the touch of a button."

Nathan Myhrvold, Group Vice-President, Applications and Content Group, Microsoft: "Writing great software and founding a company is a first step, but that only matches Bill Gates circa 1976. The secret that made the Bill Gates of 1995 is to have the technical and business skills to develop new product lines repeatedly ... I don't doubt that the next Gates will eventually appear, and the Internet may fuel her rise, but it's one hell of a tough act to follow."

Bert C. Roberts, Jr., Chairman and CEO, MCI Communications: "Gilder is dead-on right that hardware and operating systems will become subordinate to the network; that the network will, in effect, become everything and the only thing."

Andy Grove, President and CEO, Intel: "Now you predict that the PC will become a peripheral attached to an all-knowing, all-powerful Internet. I don't think so, George. Not that the Internet won't be important; I look at it as one of the most important applications that will be used on my PC in the future."

Stephen Manes, Columnist, New York Times: "I don't know Colombian beans about Java, but I've been watching this industry too long not to reach for my methane detector when somebody announces in the language of corporate propaganda that `your computer will never be the same.'"

Jesse Burst, Editor, Windows Watcher: "Mr. Gilder's article on the coming software shift is 10% fact and 90% wishful thinking ... Gilder's fantasy of a Microsoft-free computer industry might come to pass if Bill Gates spent his time in his vault counting his money. He doesn't. He obsessively watches the horizon for threats to his hegemony. When he spots a danger, he works feverishly to use his current monopolies to leverage his way into the new arena."

Scott Cook, Chairman, Intuit: "I hope Gilder will tackle the next question: How will these inventions change our lives?"

In a late development, the Wall Street Journal reported last Wednesday that Oracle Corp. is in talks to license Apple's Newton operating system. Oracle plans to use the system for "Internet terminals" that would "replace the popular personal computer" and would cost less than $500. The Journal noted that Sun Microsystems has also been working on these types of machines. It seems that the theory of a "central" network and a "peripheral" PC may be on its way to becoming a reality.