INTRODUCTION
Throughout the latter half of the 1980s and the early 1990s, a large
number of employers in both the private and public sectors were concerned
about the availability of an adequate supply of qualified health physicists.
This concern was exacerbated by a substantial increase in activities related
to health and safety and to environmental restoration and waste management
coupled with a general decline in the number of new health physics graduates
available for civilian, non-medical employment. Current and scheduled future
cut-backs in government funding for nuclear-related activities have generated
questions regarding future demand.
This report reviews the labor market trends for health physicists using
data on employment, degrees, job openings, supply of new graduates, and
salaries. This review is then used as a basis for assessing future employment
needs and new graduate supply to provide an outlook for future labor market
conditions through 2000.
EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT TRENDS,
1983-1993
Total Number of Degrees and Total
Employment
Between 1983 and 1993, employment of health physicists increased by
over 40 percent to a level of 4,500.1 (See Figure 1.) The rise
in employment between 1991 and 1993 was the largest 2-year increase over
the past decade. This employment is for professional civilian, non-medical
positions in the United States. During the same 10-year period, the total
number of new graduates from health physics programs (bachelor's plus master,s
plus doctorates) varied considerably, declining to its lowest level in
1989, but increasing considerably in 1993. In 1994, another increase resulted
in the largest number of degrees since 1986. Figure 2 indicates the trends
in the total number of health physics degrees and in the supply of new
graduates available for civilian, non-medical employment.2
For 1983 through 1989, an average of 296 degrees were awarded annually;
however, for the 4-year period, 1990-1994, the annual average dropped to
275 degrees or a 7 percent decline.3 The number of new graduates
available for civilian, non-medical employment declined from an annual
average of 171 for 1983-1989 to an annual average of 155 for 1990-1994,
a decline of over 9 percent.
The relatively large employment increases compared with the declining
supply of new graduates during 1983-1994 provide indications of the potential
inadequacy of the supply of new graduates in health physics during this
time period.
Job Openings and New Graduates
Job openings for new graduates result from growth in employment and
from replacement needs for health physicists who retire, die, leave the
labor force, or switch occupations (e.g., move from health physics into
business management or sales work). While some of the health physics job
openings are filled by workers moving in from other scientific or engineering
occupations or by persons returning to health physics, most are filled
by new graduates. Actual labor force movements are complex and detailed
data on occupational mobility and job openings do not exist. However, net
replacement needs (the number of replacement jobs to be filled by new graduates)
can be estimated using methods developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
as adjusted by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education.4
For 1983-1993, estimated job openings (for growth and replacement) averaged
243 positions annually5 while the annual average number of graduates
available for civilian, non-medical employment was only about 160. On average,
there were approximately 66 graduates available for each 100 job openings.
Dividing 1983-1993 into two time periods indicates a growing inadequacy
of supply of new graduates during the decade. For 1983-1989, the average
was 91 graduates per 100 job openings but this decreased substantially
to an average of 45 for 1990-1993. (See Figure 3.) Thus, the data indicate
a small inadequacy of supply of new graduates during the 1980s, increasing
to a substantial inadequacy in the new graduate supply in the early 1990s.
Another important indicator of labor market conditions is salary trends.
The evidence of an insufficient supply of new graduates in the early 1990s
is reinforced by the finding that starting salaries for new B.S. and M.S.
health physicists increased fairly rapidly between late 1989 and the early
1990s. By late 1992, the average starting salaries for new bachelor,s health
physicists was $33,900 and for new master,s graduates, $37,600.6
CURRENT LABOR MARKET SITUATION
Health Physicist Salaries
Surveys of starting salaries revealed, that in the fall of 1994 the
average starting salary for new bachelor,s health physicists was $34,000,
only $100 higher than in 1992. This salary was slightly less than that
for the new bachelor,s nuclear engineers, who like health physicists are
primarily employed in positions related to the nuclear industry.7
However, as Figure 4 shows, the 1994 average starting salary for new bachelor,s
health physicists exceeded considerably that for most other science fields.8
In 1994, at the master,s degree level, average starting salaries for
new graduates in health physics was $37,700, slightly lower than for new
nuclear engineering graduates but higher than all science fields except
for computer sciences.9
Placement of New Graduates
Contacts with 14 university and college health physics programs during
the early summer of 1994 and 1995 revealed that in most instances, as in
1993, almost all of their graduates seeking employment had obtained jobs;
this was especially true for those with graduate degrees. It does appear,
as mentioned by several schools, that a somewhat larger number of bachelor,s
graduates were going on to graduate school. Also, there was virtually no
recruiting on campuses, and successful job searches were taking longer
than in the past.
Health Physics Society Employment Exchange
Contact with Health Physics Society staff responsible for monitoring
employment placement activities at the society,s national meetings continue
to reveal what appears to be a lessening of available job opportunities.
At the 1994 annual meeting, the job placement service had over 120 resumes
submitted and some 40 jobs posted by employers. In comparison, at the most
recent meeting in July 1995, about 135 job resumes were posted and only
21 organizations were seeking prospective employees. It should be noted
that there have been no jobs posted by nuclear utilities during the past
four years.
DOE Contractor Laboratories and Operations Facilities
In the late spring and early summer of 1994, communication with a number
of large DOE contractor-operated facilities revealed that the need for
various engineering and scientific specialties, including health physicists,
was very selective and down considerably from the early 1990s. There was
very little active recruiting of new health physics graduates; primarily
persons with experience or those with graduate degrees were sought where
needed. In some instances, because of proposed changes in missions and
redirection in funding, there was a freeze on hiring new personnel although
vacancies did exist.
FUTURE LABOR MARKET TRENDS
Future Employment Trends
Health physicists are employed in a wide variety of nuclear-related
activities. As Table 1 reveals, in 1993 (the most recent year for which
detailed data are available), over 80 percent of the employment continued
to be concentrated in four segments--waste management and decommissioning,
reactor operations and maintenance, government, and universities. For the
most recent 2-year period, 1991-1993, by far the fastest growing segment
was waste management and decommissioning which increased its employment
of health physicists by over 90 percent. Reactor operations and maintenance
which had grown during the 1980s has declined since the early 1990s.
Overall, current estimates indicate a decline of 10 percent in nuclear-related
engineering and scientist employment between 1994 and 2000.10
It is anticipated that almost all of this employment decline will occur
in DOE-funded activities. The impact on health physicist employment is
expected to also result in a 10 percent decline for these personnel; most
of this decline is projected to occur during the latter part of this period.
Table 1. Employment of Health Physicists, 1991 and 1993
(Excludes Medical Establishments) |
| |
|
|
| Primary Segment |
1991 |
1993 |
| Fuel Cycle, Front End |
50 |
80 |
| Waste Management and Decommissioning |
280 |
520 |
| Reactor Operations and Maintenance |
740 |
710 |
| Reactor, Facility and Instrument Design |
120 |
160 |
| Health Physics and Industrial Safety |
150 |
130 |
| Non-University Research and Development |
150 |
150 |
| Weapons Development |
200 |
210 |
| Government |
1,770 |
1,940 |
| University |
430 |
470 |
| Miscellaneous |
160 |
100 |
| |
|
|
| TOTAL |
4,050 |
4,470 |
From 1994 through 2000, the anticipated decline in the number of health
physics positions is expected to be only partly offset by job openings
created by attrition of health physicists who retire, switch occupations,
etc. The replacement needs due to attrition are expected to generate a
net annual demand for new graduates ranging from 220 down to about 50 over
the period. (See Figure 5). The replacement needs are estimated using two
replacement rates. The lower replacement rate used in making these estimates
(3.5 percent) is a slightly higher rate than was used for estimating attrition
over the previous decade. The higher replacement rate (4.5 percent) would
result in more job openings and may occur because of factors particularly
relevant to the health physicist work force (e.g., an aging population).
Future Education Trends
During the period 1983 to 1994, total enrollments in health physics
programs (undergraduate plus graduate programs) peaked in 1984, declined
to its lowest level in 1988 and then increased steadily to its highest
level ever (1,129 enrollees) in 1994. (See Figure 6). During the same period,
as shown previously, the total number of health physics degrees awarded
also peaked in 1984, declined to its lowest levels between 1990-1992, and
rose sharply in 1993. Based on recent estimates of trends in all bachelor,s
degrees in science and engineering for the period 1994-2000, it is anticipated
that total health physics degrees will decline from 302 in 1993 to an annual
average of approximately 275 in the 1994-2000 period. Using estimates for
the most recent years of the supply of new graduates available for civilian,
non-medical employment, it appears that the average annual number of graduates
available for employment will decrease somewhat to 160 for the same 1994-2000
period.
Future Job Openings and Supply of New Graduates
Currently, the projected employment decline from 1994 to 2000 means
that virtually all job openings for new graduates during this period will
result from replacement needs. Figure 7 shows job openings for new graduates
at two different attrition rates because data on actual attrition and replacement
needs are not available--a lower rate of 3.5 percent and a higher rate
of 4.5 percent as indicated previously.
For the entire period 1994-2000, projected job openings compared with
projected available supply of new graduates indicates a substantial oversupply
at the lower attrition level but a much smaller potential oversupply at
the higher attrition level (i.e., an estimated ratio of 163 new graduates
available per 100 job openings versus 113 graduates per 100 jobs openings).
For the current short-term period, 1994-1996, the labor market appears
to be much more balanced, with even a modest shortfall if the higher attrition
rate occurs. However, for 1997-2000, a substantial oversupply appears possible
at both the lower and higher attrition rates. For example, even at the
higher attrition rate, there is an estimated ratio of 150 new graduates
available for employment per 100 job openings.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Employment opportunities for health physicists in both the private and
public sectors increased rapidly during the latter part of the 1980s and
early 1990s, and the supply of new graduates appeared insufficient to meet
the demand. During the current period, there appears to be generally a
balance between the demand for and the supply of new health physics graduates;
however, there are indications that the number of positions available are
far fewer than in prior years and successful job searches are taking longer.
Based on current trends, even at the higher rate of attrition, the number
of potential job openings will be considerably less than the average available
supply of new graduates during the last several years of the decade. Factors
which could well affect the demand/supply situation include the future
level of DOE funding available for environmental restoration, waste management,
and health and safety issues, a greater than anticipated outflow from health
physics positions, and a decision by health physics majors to switch to
other fields thereby lessening the potential available supply.
ENDNOTES
- The employment data are from the biennial U.S. Department of Energy
Survey of Occupational Employment in Nuclear-Related Activities
conducted by Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE). The
health physics employment includes health physics scientists and radiation
protection engineers. The survey data are augmented by data from the Institute
of Nuclear Power Operations and by estimates of university faculty employment
developed by ORISE staff.
- New graduates available for civilian, non-medical employment are estimated
by subtracting from total new graduates those who join the military, undertake
further study, accept medical-related employment, or accept foreign employment.
Also excluded from the available new supply are the graduates from one
institution who are already professionally employed while completing their
academic programs.
- The enrollment and degree data, the placement data, and the data on
the number of graduates available for U.S. civilian, non-medical employment
are developed from the annual U.S. Department of Energy Survey of Health
Physics/Radiation Protection Enrollments and Degrees conducted by ORISE.
- U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment
Projections, Total and Net Occupational Separations: A Report of Recent
Research, Washington, D.C. 1991 and Assessing the Adequacy of Future
Science and Engineering Degree Awards, Michael G. Finn and Joe G. Baker
(Oak Ridge, TN: ORISE, 1992).
- Net annual attrition for the period 1983-1993 was estimated to be 3
percent.
- Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Salary Information for
Nuclear Engineers and Health Physicists, October 1992 (Oak Ridge, TN: ORISE
1992).
- Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Salary Information for
Nuclear Engineers and Health Physicists, October 1994 (Oak Ridge, TN: ORISE
1994).
- College Placement Council, Salary Survey, September 1994 (Bethlehem,
PA, 1992).
- See footnotes (6) and (7).
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Education Programs, Scientist
and Engineer Energy Employment Expected to Decline During 1994-2000 as
DOE Funding is Reduced, Manpower Assessment Brief, No. 29, June 1995.
This report is based on work performed under Contract No. DE-AC05-76OR00033
between the U.S. Department of Energy and Oak Ridge Associated Universities.
Prepared by:
Norman Seltzer
Analysis and Evaluation Programs
Science/Engineering Education Division
Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-0117
Prepared for:
Office of Science Education Programs
Office of Nuclear Energy, Science, and Technology
U.S. Department of Energy
and
Office of Personnel
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
All opinions expressed in this paper are the authors, and do not necessarily
reflect policies and views of the U.S. Department of Energy or Oak Ridge
Associated Universities.
ªThe Oak Ridge Institute
for Science and Education (ORISE) was established by the U.S. Department
of Energy to undertake national and international programs in science and
engineering education, training and management systems, energy and environment
system, and medical sciences. ORISE and its programs are operated by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU)
through a management and operating contract with the U.S. Department of
Energy. Established in 1946, ORAU is a consortium of 88 colleges and universities.
