From: Walter Mebane <wrm1@macht.arts.cornell.edu>
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 2004 16:54:35 -0500
To: editor@commondreams.org
CC: jasjeet_sekhon@harvard.edu, wand@stanford.edu
Subject: Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked
To the Editor:
Regarding "Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked," by
Thom Hartmann
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
Jasjeet Sekhon <jasjeet_sekhon@harvard.edu>, Jonathan Wand
<wand@stanford.edu> and I <wrm1@cornell.edu> have looked into the
allegation of vote fraud involving optical scan voting machines in the
2004 presidential election voting in Florida. Based on the data shown
below, we conclude that allegation is baseless. Instead, the pattern
in which counties that have high Democratic registration had high
percentage increases in the vote for Bush reflects the fact that all
those counties have trended strongly Republican over the past twelve
years. The counties are mostly in the Florida Panhandle. Given the
voting history and registration trends, these counties seem to have
many old-style southern Democrats who have not bothered to change
their registration.
The story
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
refers to data originally posted at
http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/
in particular at
http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/Campaign2006/SurprisingFloridaPresidentialElectionResults.htm
In the following tables, (E) or (O) after the county name indicates
whether the voting machine was E-Touch or Op-Scan. The column labeled
DemChg04 is the Percent Change Dem statistic from table at the
aforementioned link. Columns DemV00, DemV96 and DemV92 give the
proportion of votes cast for the Democratic presidential candidate in
election years 2000, 1996 and 1992. Columns DemR04, DemR00 and DemR96
give the proportion of voters registered Democratic in 2004, 2000 and
1996, and columns RepR04, RepR00 and RepR96 give the proportion
registered Republican.
You can see that the counties that have big negative values for
DemChg04 have had low proportions voting Democratic but high
proportions registered Democratic going all the way back to 1992
(Table 1). The proportion registered Democratic has been decreasing,
albeit slowly, while the proportion registered Republican has been
increasing, again slowly (Table 2).
Table 1: 2004 Vote Share Changes, Previous Years' Democratic Vote and
Registration Shares
DemChg04 DemV00 DemV96 DemV92 DemR04 DemR00 DemR96
Broward (E) 27.5 0.67 0.64 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.53
Charlotte (E) 34.6 0.44 0.43 0.37 0.32 0.34 0.36
Collier (E) 40.0 0.32 0.32 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.25
Miami-Dade (E) 25.4 0.53 0.57 0.47 0.43 0.44 0.48
Hillsborough (E) 11.0 0.47 0.47 0.37 0.42 0.44 0.48
Indian River (E) 30.0 0.40 0.37 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.33
Lake (E) 13.6 0.41 0.40 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.37
Lee (E) 33.7 0.40 0.40 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34
Martin (E) 51.5 0.43 0.38 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28
Nassau (E) -28.9 0.29 0.34 0.30 0.37 0.48 0.56
Palm Beach (E) 34.8 0.62 0.58 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46
Pasco (E) 18.9 0.49 0.50 0.39 0.37 0.40 0.43
Pinellas (E) 30.8 0.50 0.49 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.39
Sarasota (E) 45.0 0.45 0.43 0.35 0.31 0.31 0.31
Sumter (E) -10.9 0.43 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.48 0.57
Alachua (O) 11.1 0.55 0.54 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.57
Baker (O) -68.4 0.29 0.34 0.29 0.69 0.83 0.89
Bay (O) -28.3 0.32 0.33 0.28 0.39 0.48 0.54
Bradford (O) -51.3 0.35 0.41 0.37 0.61 0.70 0.77
Brevard (O) 13.7 0.45 0.41 0.31 0.37 0.38 0.40
Calhoun (O) -56.9 0.42 0.43 0.37 0.82 0.88 0.91
Citrus (O) 8.3 0.45 0.44 0.36 0.39 0.41 0.46
Clay (O) -9.2 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.31
Columbia (O) -43.1 0.38 0.41 0.37 0.57 0.64 0.68
DeSoto (O) -30.6 0.43 0.43 0.36 0.59 0.64 0.70
Dixie (O) -60.7 0.39 0.46 0.43 0.77 0.86 0.89
Duval (O) -9.9 0.41 0.44 0.37 0.46 0.50 0.54
Escambia (O) -17.1 0.35 0.35 0.31 0.41 0.46 0.51
Flagler (O) 26.6 0.51 0.48 0.41 0.38 0.40 0.42
Franklin (O) -47.7 0.44 0.46 0.35 0.77 0.81 0.87
Gadsden (O) -15.8 0.66 0.66 0.59 0.83 0.85 0.88
Gilchrist (O) -50.9 0.35 0.41 0.38 0.59 0.72 0.78
Glades (O) -35.6 0.43 0.45 0.39 0.65 0.69 0.76
Gulf (O) -50.8 0.39 0.41 0.33 0.67 0.79 0.84
Hamilton (O) -43.6 0.43 0.47 0.44 0.79 0.86 0.91
Hardee (O) -53.5 0.38 0.39 0.31 0.64 0.73 0.79
Hendry (O) -28.3 0.40 0.44 0.34 0.57 0.63 0.66
Hernando (O) 19.0 0.50 0.49 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.42
Highlands (O) -3.1 0.40 0.42 0.35 0.40 0.42 0.45
Holmes (O) -70.0 0.29 0.34 0.29 0.73 0.83 0.90
Jackson (O) -46.7 0.42 0.43 0.37 0.72 0.79 0.82
Jefferson (O) -23.6 0.54 0.53 0.49 0.72 0.79 0.83
Lafayette (O) -69.3 0.31 0.36 0.34 0.83 0.89 0.94
Leon (O) 8.7 0.60 0.55 0.49 0.57 0.59 0.61
Levy (O) -38.9 0.42 0.45 0.40 0.60 0.67 0.72
Liberty (O) -59.9 0.42 0.40 0.32 0.88 0.94 0.96
Madison (O) -38.7 0.49 0.50 0.45 0.80 0.84 0.86
Manatee (O) 29.1 0.45 0.43 0.34 0.33 0.35 0.37
Marion (O) 3.2 0.43 0.41 0.36 0.40 0.42 0.45
Monroe (O) 37.6 0.49 0.47 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.44
Okaloosa (O) -12.7 0.24 0.26 0.20 0.25 0.28 0.32
Okeechobee (O) -27.7 0.47 0.49 0.37 0.58 0.65 0.69
Orange (O) 23.9 0.50 0.46 0.35 0.40 0.41 0.41
Osceola (O) 18.8 0.51 0.47 0.33 0.40 0.42 0.44
Polk (O) -4.2 0.45 0.44 0.35 0.43 0.46 0.50
Putnam (O) -30.6 0.46 0.48 0.42 0.58 0.63 0.67
St.Johns (O) 8.0 0.32 0.34 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.39
St.Lucie (O) 26.5 0.53 0.49 0.35 0.41 0.41 0.44
Santa Rosa (O) -22.5 0.25 0.26 0.20 0.28 0.35 0.44
Seminole (O) 27.9 0.43 0.39 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.35
Suwannee (O) -55.0 0.33 0.37 0.35 0.64 0.71 0.76
Taylor (O) -53.0 0.39 0.45 0.36 0.76 0.82 0.87
Union (O) -64.5 0.37 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.84 0.91
Volusia (O) 25.7 0.53 0.49 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.46
Wakulla (O) -37.7 0.45 0.43 0.35 0.67 0.74 0.80
Walton (O) -29.5 0.31 0.34 0.29 0.37 0.53 0.63
Washington (O) -58.1 0.35 0.38 0.32 0.67 0.74 0.82
Table 2: 2004 Vote Share Changes, Previous Years' Democratic and
Republican Registration Shares
DemChg04 DemR04 DemR00 DemR96 RepR04 RepR00 RepR96
Broward (E) 27.5 0.50 0.51 0.53 0.27 0.30 0.33
Charlotte (E) 34.6 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.45 0.48 0.52
Collier (E) 40.0 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.53 0.57 0.62
Miami-Dade (E) 25.4 0.43 0.44 0.48 0.35 0.38 0.39
Hillsborough (E) 11.0 0.42 0.44 0.48 0.35 0.37 0.38
Indian River (E) 30.0 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.51 0.54 0.57
Lake (E) 13.6 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.47 0.49 0.51
Lee (E) 33.7 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.48 0.49 0.52
Martin (E) 51.5 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.52 0.56 0.60
Nassau (E) -28.9 0.37 0.48 0.56 0.49 0.41 0.37
Palm Beach (E) 34.8 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.32 0.35 0.39
Pasco (E) 18.9 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.40 0.41 0.43
Pinellas (E) 30.8 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.45
Sarasota (E) 45.0 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.48 0.52 0.56
Sumter (E) -10.9 0.41 0.48 0.57 0.44 0.38 0.34
Alachua (O) 11.1 0.51 0.53 0.57 0.28 0.28 0.30
Baker (O) -68.4 0.69 0.83 0.89 0.24 0.14 0.09
Bay (O) -28.3 0.39 0.48 0.54 0.44 0.37 0.34
Bradford (O) -51.3 0.61 0.70 0.77 0.28 0.21 0.16
Brevard (O) 13.7 0.37 0.38 0.40 0.45 0.46 0.48
Calhoun (O) -56.9 0.82 0.88 0.91 0.12 0.08 0.07
Citrus (O) 8.3 0.39 0.41 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.41
Clay (O) -9.2 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.57 0.56 0.56
Columbia (O) -43.1 0.57 0.64 0.68 0.31 0.26 0.25
DeSoto (O) -30.6 0.59 0.64 0.70 0.25 0.24 0.24
Dixie (O) -60.7 0.77 0.86 0.89 0.15 0.10 0.08
Duval (O) -9.9 0.46 0.50 0.54 0.37 0.36 0.35
Escambia (O) -17.1 0.41 0.46 0.51 0.44 0.41 0.40
Flagler (O) 26.6 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.44
Franklin (O) -47.7 0.77 0.81 0.87 0.16 0.14 0.10
Gadsden (O) -15.8 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.11 0.10 0.09
Gilchrist (O) -50.9 0.59 0.72 0.78 0.30 0.20 0.17
Glades (O) -35.6 0.65 0.69 0.76 0.25 0.22 0.19
Gulf (O) -50.8 0.67 0.79 0.84 0.27 0.16 0.13
Hamilton (O) -43.6 0.79 0.86 0.91 0.15 0.10 0.07
Hardee (O) -53.5 0.64 0.73 0.79 0.27 0.21 0.17
Hendry (O) -28.3 0.57 0.63 0.66 0.31 0.28 0.26
Hernando (O) 19.0 0.39 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.45
Highlands (O) -3.1 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.44 0.45 0.45
Holmes (O) -70.0 0.73 0.83 0.90 0.21 0.13 0.08
Jackson (O) -46.7 0.72 0.79 0.82 0.22 0.16 0.14
Jefferson (O) -23.6 0.72 0.79 0.83 0.21 0.15 0.13
Lafayette (O) -69.3 0.83 0.89 0.94 0.13 0.08 0.05
Leon (O) 8.7 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.27 0.27 0.27
Levy (O) -38.9 0.60 0.67 0.72 0.28 0.24 0.22
Liberty (O) -59.9 0.88 0.94 0.96 0.08 0.04 0.03
Madison (O) -38.7 0.80 0.84 0.86 0.15 0.12 0.11
Manatee (O) 29.1 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.50
Marion (O) 3.2 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.43
Monroe (O) 37.6 0.36 0.39 0.44 0.39 0.39 0.40
Okaloosa (O) -12.7 0.25 0.28 0.32 0.57 0.56 0.56
Okeechobee (O) -27.7 0.58 0.65 0.69 0.30 0.27 0.24
Orange (O) 23.9 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.35 0.40 0.44
Osceola (O) 18.8 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.33 0.36 0.40
Polk (O) -4.2 0.43 0.46 0.50 0.39 0.39 0.40
Putnam (O) -30.6 0.58 0.63 0.67 0.28 0.26 0.25
St.Johns (O) 8.0 0.28 0.34 0.39 0.53 0.50 0.49
St.Lucie (O) 26.5 0.41 0.41 0.44 0.37 0.39 0.41
Santa Rosa (O) -22.5 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.56 0.52 0.47
Seminole (O) 27.9 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.45 0.48 0.52
Suwannee (O) -55.0 0.64 0.71 0.76 0.27 0.22 0.19
Taylor (O) -53.0 0.76 0.82 0.87 0.19 0.14 0.11
Union (O) -64.5 0.75 0.84 0.91 0.18 0.12 0.07
Volusia (O) 25.7 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.36 0.38 0.40
Wakulla (O) -37.7 0.67 0.74 0.80 0.24 0.19 0.15
Walton (O) -29.5 0.37 0.53 0.63 0.50 0.35 0.29
Washington (O) -58.1 0.67 0.74 0.82 0.25 0.19 0.14
Walter Mebane
--
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Walter R. Mebane, Jr. email: wrm1@cornell.edu
Professor office voice: 607/255-3868
Department of Government cell: 607/592-0546
Cornell University fax: 607/255-4530
217 White Hall WWW: http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/wrm1/
Ithaca, NY 14853-7901
* - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - *
``Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked,'' by Thom Hartmann
http://www.jefffisherforcongress.com/
The original table that sparked the controversy: or here:
For two technical but also more rigorous statistical analyses that support our conclusion that there was no effect of machine type (Op-Scan versus E-Touch), see an analysis using a matching estimator, by Jasjeet Sekhon and an analysis using a robust binomial regression estimator, by Jonathan Wand. The data used in those papers is available here.