Figure 1: Effects of Support on Federal Local Expenditures, Pre-midterm
Figure 2: Effects of Support on Local Federal Expenditures, Post-midterm
Figure 3: Effects of Support on Pre-midterm to Post-midterm Changes in Local Federal Expenditures
variable  | description |
transfer payments 
| transfer payments to individuals |
civilian employment 
| Federal government civilian employment |
|
military employment
| Federal government military employment |
civilian salaries 
| salaries and wages, all civilian and Postal Service employees |
|
military salaries
| salaries and wages, all military personnel |
|
civilian procurements
| procurement contracts, all except Defense Department |
|
military procurements
| procurement contracts, Defense Department |
|
direct payments
| direct payments other than for individuals |
education transfers 
| transfers to local governments for education |
|
highways transfers
| transfers to local governments for highways |
|
social welfare transfers
| transfers to local governments for public welfare, employment security, health and hospitals, housing |
|
other transfers
| all other transfers to local governments |
Notes:
All variables are used per capita, based on county population 
.
source, Bureau of Economic Analysis 1990.
source, Bureau of the Census 1984-90.
source, Bureau of the Census 1986-91 and 1991; county totals are
estimated as in Mebane 1993.
units, $1000 per person.
units, jobs per person.
| pre-midterm | ||||||
| maximum is an elite-oriented targeting value | maximum is not in the elite-oriented range | |||||
| civilian procurements | .61 | (.61, .61) | civilian employment | .96 | (.00, 1.00) | |
| military procurements | .68 | (.18, .97) | military salaries | -- | no max | |
| military employment | .71 | (.71, .71) | transfer payments | -- | no max | |
| civilian salaries | .68 | (.67, .68) | Federal other transfers | .18 | (.02, .56) | |
| direct payments | .52 | (.46, .58) | State welfare transfers | .29 | (.24, .35) | |
| Federal highways transfers | .67 | (.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Federal welfare transfers | .64 | (.63, .65) | ||||
| Federal education transfers | .56 | (.52, .59) | ||||
| State highways transfers | .67 | (.67, .67) | ||||
| State education transfers | .55 | (.53, .57) | ||||
| State other transfers | .71 | (.68, .74) | ||||
| post-midterm | ||||||
| maximum is an elite-oriented targeting value | maximum is not in the elite-oriented range | |||||
| transfer payments | .74 | (.00, 1.00) | civilian procurements | -- | no max | |
| military procurements | .44 | (.32, .57) | ||||
| civilian employment | .85 | (.00, 1.00) | ||||
| military employment | .04 | (.02, .06) | ||||
| civilian salaries | -- | no max | ||||
| military salaries | -- | no max | ||||
| direct payments | .90 | (.43, 1.00) | ||||
| Federal highways transfers | .98 | (.00, 1.00) | ||||
| Federal welfare transfers | .90 | (.89, .90) | ||||
| Federal education transfers | .99 | (.83, 1.00) | ||||
| Federal other transfers | -- | no max | ||||
| State highways transfers | .05 | (.00, .87) | ||||
| State welfare transfers | .44 | (.32, .57) | ||||
| State education transfers | -- | no max | ||||
| State other transfers | .84 | (.23, 1.00) | ||||
Source: Confidence intervals are computed using normal approximations and
asymptotic standard errors obtained by the delta method from the asymptotic
covariance matrix of the coefficient estimates of the targeting polynomials.
The polynomial does not have any local maximum values in (0,1).
| institutionally less complex LFEs | ||||||
| maximum is a voter-oriented targeting value | maximum is not in the voter-oriented range | |||||
| military employment | .39 | (.39, .39) | civilian employment | .98 | (.00, 1.00) | |
| civilian procurements | .33 | (.32, .35) | ||||
| civilian salaries | .41 | (.41, .41) | ||||
| military procurements | .42 | (.34, .51) | ||||
| military salaries | .39 | (.26, .53) | ||||
| transfer payments | .38 | (.14, .67) | ||||
| direct payments | .32 | (.27, .38) | ||||
| institutionally complex LFEs | ||||||
| maximum is a voter-oriented targeting value | maximum is not in the voter-oriented range | |||||
| Federal welfare transfers | .46 | (.42, .51) | Federal other transfers | -- | no max | |
| Federal highways transfers | .35 | (.00, 1.00) | State highways transfers | .17 | (.07, .33) | |
| Federal education transfers | .32 | (.27, .38) | State welfare transfers | -- | no max | |
| State education transfers | -- | no max | ||||
| State other transfers | .53 | (.49, .56) | ||||
Source: Confidence intervals are computed using normal approximations and
asymptotic standard errors obtained by the delta method from the asymptotic
covariance matrix of the coefficient estimates of the targeting polynomials.
The polynomial does not have any local maximum values in (0,1).