Government 317: Campaigns and Elections
Fall 2001
Tuesday and Thursday 2:55-4:10 (BR 135)
Professor: Walter R. Mebane, Jr.
Office: 121 McGraw Hall (255-3868); email wrm1@macht.arts.cornell.edu
Office hours: Tue 4:30-5:30, Wed 2-4 or other times by appointment.
Course web page: http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/work/wrm1/gov317.html
TA: Israel Waismel-Manor
TA email: isw2@cornell.edu
TA phone: 272-5961
TA Office and Office Hours:

due date description weight

October 4 first paper 25%

October 25 proposal for final paper 5%

December 10 final paper 35%

December 13 (12-2:30pm) final exam 35%

Reading Availability

Large portions of the following books are required reading, so you may wish to buy them. All should also (soon) be on reserve at Uris library.

Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, David W. Rohde. 1999. Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly.

Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. Cambridge UP.

Fiorina, Morris P. 1989. Congress: Keystone of the Washington Establishment. Second edition. New Haven: Yale UP.

Fiorina, Morris P. 1995. Divided Government. Second edition. Allyn and Bacon.

Davidson, Chandler, and Bernard Grofman, eds. 1994. Quiet Revolution in the South: The Impact of the Voting Rights Act, 1965-1990. Princeton UP.

Hinich, Melvin J., and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. New York: Cambridge UP.

Jacobson, Gary C. 1997. The Politics of Congressional Elections. Fourth edition. New York: Addison-Wesley.

Miller, Warren E., and J. Merrill Shanks. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge: Harvard UP.

Verba, Sidney, Kay Lehman Schlozman, Henry E. Brady. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Harvard University Press.

Class meeting and reading schedule

Items with a bullet ( ) are required. Others are supplementary.

1. Money, Interests, Pork (Aug 30-Sep 13)
   • Fiorina. Congress. Entire.
   • Mebane, Walter R. Jr., and Gregory J. Wawro. 1999. ``Pork Barrel Politics in Presidential Elections.'' MS linked to http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/work/wrm1/gov317.html.
   • FECInfo. http://www.tray.com/fecinfo/
   • Larry Makinson and Joshua Goldstein. http://www.opensecrets.org/home/index.htm
   • Project Vote Smart. http://www.vote-smart.org/.
   • Thomas (House of Representatives). http://thomas.loc.gov/
   • House Congressional Directories 104th-106th Congresses (and more).
     http://thomas.loc.gov/home/legbranch/cis.html or
     http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/cong016.html
   • GPO Access, Other Databases. http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/db2.html

   U.S. Government Web Sites. http://www.firstgov.gov/

   Miscellaneous House Information. http://www.clerkweb.house.gov/

   Miscellaneous House Information. http://www.house.gov/

   Information Sources for Legislative Reseach.
   http://thomas.loc.gov/home/legbranch/otherleg.html

   Federal Election Commission. http://www.fec.gov/

   Consolidated Federal Funds Report. http://www.census.gov/govs/www/cffr.html

   Federal Procurement Database System Reports. http://fpds.gsa.gov/Fpds/cust_reports.htm, http://fpds.gsa.gov/Fpds/customer.htm and http://fpds.gsa.gov/fpds/whoarewe.htm

   Federal Assistance Award Data System. http://www.census.gov/govs/www/faads.html

   Budget of the U.S. Government. http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget/index.html

   U.S. State and Local Gateway, Federal Funding. http://www.statelocal.gov/funding.html

   U.S. Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/

   Government Information Sharing Project. http://govinfo.kerr.orst.edu/

   Electoral College including Historical Presidential Election Results.
   http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/elctcoll/

   Official House Election Returns. http://www.clerkweb.house.gov/elections/elections.htm

   Election Returns (1998). http://www.nytimes.com/specials/election/1998/index.html

   Political Points. http://www.nytimes.com/library/politics/polpoints.html

   Money in State Politics. http://www.followthemoney.org/

   C-SPAN Campaign 2000 (includes extensive Florida 2000 information).
   http://www.c-span.org/campaign2000/

   Biersack, Robert, Paul S. Herrnson and Clyde Wilcox, eds. 1999. After the Revolution: PACs, Lobbies, and the Republican Congress. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.

   Biersack, Robert, Paul S. Herrnson and Clyde Wilcox, eds. 1994. Risky Business: PAC Decisionmaking in Congressional Elections. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.

   Groseclose, Tim, and James M. Snyder, Jr. 1996. ``Buying Supermajorities.'' American Political Science Review 90:303-315.

   Magleby, David B., ed. 2000. Outside Money: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 1998 Congressional Elections. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.

   Alexander, Herbert E. 1984. Financing Politics: Money, Elections, and Political Reform. Washington, DC: CQ.

   Alexander, Herbert E., and Anthony Corrado. 1995. Financing the 1992 Election. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.

   Thompson, Joel A., and Gary F. Moncrief, eds. 1998. Campaign Finance in State Legislative Elections. Washington, DC: CQ.

   R. Douglas Arnold. 1979. Congress and the Bureaucracy: A Theory of Influence. New Haven: Yale UP

   Douglas Arnold. 1990. Logic of Congressional Action. New Haven: Yale UP.

   Fenno, Richard R. Jr. 1978. Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. Boston: Little, Brown.

   Mayhew, David R. 1974. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven: Yale UP.

   Stein, Robert M. and Bickers, Kenneth N. 1995. Perpetuating the Pork Barrel: Policy Subsystems and American Democracy. New York: Cambridge UP.

   Brams, Steven. 1978. The Presidential Election Game. New Haven: Yale UP.

   Gurian, Paul-Henri. 1987. ``Resource Allocation Strategies in Presidential Nomination Campaigns.'' American Journal of Political Science 31:802-821.

2. Spatial Theory and Manipulability of Elections (Sep 18-20)
   • Hinich and Munger. Chapters 1-4.

   Ansolabehere, Stephen, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles Stewart, III. 2001. ``Candidate Positioning in U.S. House Elections.'' American Journal of Political Science 45:136-159.

   Cox, Gary. 1996. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral System. New York: Cambridge UP.

   Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row. Chapters 7 and 8.

   Hinich, Melvin J., and Michael C. Munger. 1994. Ideology and the Theory of Politicial Choice. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

   Lindblom, Charles E. 1977. Politics and Markets: The World's Political-Economic Systems. New York: Basic Books.

   Lupia, Arthur, and Mathew D. McCubbins. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know? New York: Cambridge UP.

   Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge UP.

3. Congressional Elections (Sep 25-Oct 2)
   • Abramson, Aldrich and Rohde. Chapters 9-11.
   • Jacobson. The Politics of Congressional Elections. Entire.

   Bruce Cain, John Ferejohn and Morris Fiorina. 1987. The Personal Vote: Constituency Service and Electoral Independence. Harvard UP.

   Erikson, Robert S. 1990. ``Economic Conditions and the Congressional Vote: A Review of the Macrolevel Evidence.'' American Journal of Political Science 34:373-399.

   Erikson, Robert S., and Thomas R. Palfrey. 2000. ``Equilibria in Campaign Spending Games: Theory and Data.'' American Political Science Review 94:595-609.

   Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U.S.\ House Elections, 1946-1988. Boulder: Westview.

   Jacobson, Gary C. 1980. Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven: Yale UP.

   Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. ``Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946-86.'' American Political Science Review 83:773-793.

   Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2000. ``Congressional Campaign Contributions, District Service and Electoral Outcomes in the United States: Statistical Tests of a Formal Game Model with Nonlinear Dynamics." In Political Complexity: Nonlinear Models of Politics, Diana Richards, ed. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Also linked to http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/work/wrm1/gov317.html.

   Abramowitz, Alan. 1992. Senate Elections. Ann Arbor: U of Michigan.

4. Electoral Participation (Oct 4-Oct 16)
   • Davidson and Grofman. Introduction, Chapters 1, 10-13.
   • Abramson, Aldrich and Rohde. Chapter 4.
   • Hinich and Munger. Chapter 7.
   • Verba, Schlozman and Brady. Chapters 9-15.

   Monmonier, Mark. 2001. Bushmanders and Bullwinkles: How Politicians Manipulate Electronic Maps and Census Data to Win Elections. Chicago: U of Chicago.

   Cameron, Charles, David Epstein, and O'Halloran, Sharyn. 1996. ``Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress?'' American Political Science Review 90:794-812.

   Canon, David T. 1999. Race, Redistricting, and Representation: The Unintended Consequences of Black Majority Districts. Chicago: U of Chicago.

   Lublin, David. 1997. The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymandering and Minority Interests in Congress. Princeton: Princeton UP.

   Shotts, Kenneth W. 2001. ``The Effect of Majority-Minority Mandates on Partisan Gerrymandering.'' American Journal of Political Science 45:120-135.

   Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green. 2000. ``The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment.'' American Political Science Review 94:653-663.

   Burnham, Walter Dean. 1982. ``The Appearance and Disappearance of the American Voter.'' Chapter 4 in The Current Crisis in American Politics. Oxford: Oxford UP.

   Palfrey, Thomas R., and Howard Rosenthal. 1985. ``Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty.'' American Political Science Review 79:62-79.

   Piven, Frances Fox, and Richard A. Cloward. 1988. Why Americans Don't Vote. New York: Pantheon Books.

   Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1986. American voter turnout in comparative perspective. American Political Science Review, 80:17-43.

   Riker, William H., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1973. Introduction to Positive Political Theory. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.

   Rosenstone, Steven J., and John Mark Hansen. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America . New York: Macmillan.

   Verba, Sidney, and Norman H. Nie. 1972. Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. New York: Harper and Row.

   Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven: Yale UP.

5. Partisanship, Ideology and Presidential Voting (Oct 18-30)
   • Abramson, Aldrich and Rohde 1998. Chapters 6-8.
   • Miller and Shanks. Chapters 6, 7, 11-15.

   Wand, Jonathan N., Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael C. Herron, and Henry E. Brady. 2001. ``The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida.'' MS linked to
   http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/work/wrm1/gov317.html.

   Merzer, Martin, and the Staff of The Miami Herald. 2001. The Miami Herald Report: Democracy Held Hostage. New York: St. Martin's Press.

   Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, David W. Rohde. 1993 [1983, 1987, 1991]. Change and Continuity in the 1992 [1980, 1984, 1988] Elections. Rev. ed. Washington DC: CQ.

   Berelson, Bernard R., et al. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: U of Chicago.

   Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.

   Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1984. The Spatial Theory of Voting: An Introduction. New York: Cambridge UP.

   Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich, eds. 1990. Advances in the Spatial Theory of Voting. Cambridge: Cambridge UP.

   Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale UP.

   Kelley, Stanley Jr. 1983. Interpreting Elections. Princeton: Princeton UP.

   Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: U of Chicago.

   Kramer, Gerald H. 1983. ``The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate versus Individual-Level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting.'' American Political Science Review, 77:92-111.

   Nie, Norman H., Sidney Verba and John R. Petrocik. 1979. The Changing American Voter. 2d ed. Cambridge: Harvard UP.

   Wattenberg, Martin P. 1996. The Decline of American Political Parties, 1952-1994. Cambridge: Harvard UP.

   Aldrich, John H. 1980. Before the Convention: Strategies and Choices in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Chicago: U of Chicago.

   Bartels, Larry. Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton: Princeton UP.

   White, Theodore H. 1961 [1965, 1969, 1973]. The Making of the President, 1960 [1964, 1968, 1972]. New York: Atheneum.

   McGinniss, Joe. 1970. The Selling of the President, 1968. New York: Pocket Books.

   Witcover, Jules. 1977. Marathon: The Pursuit of the Presidency, 1972-1976. New York: Viking Press.

6. Parties, Policy Moderation and Divided Government (Nov 1-Nov 15)
   • Alesina and Rosenthal. Chaps 1-3.
   • Fiorina. Divided Government. Entire.
   • Hinich and Munger. Chapters 8-9.

   Aldrich, John H. 1995. Why Parties?: The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America. Chicago: U of Chicago P.

   Duverger, Maurice. 1959. Political Parties. New York: Wiley.

   Lijphart, Arend. 1990. ``The Political Consequences of Election Laws, 1945-85.'' American Political Science Review, 84:481-496.

   Riker, William H. 1982. ``The Two-Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science.'' American Political Science Review 76:753-766.

   Rosenstone, Steven J., Roy Behr and Edward Lazarus. 1996. Third Parties in America: Citizen Response to Major Party Failure. Expanded Revised ed. Princeton University Press.

   Shepsle, Kenneth A. 1991. Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition. New York: Harwood Academic.

   Sundquist, James L. 1973. Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States. Washington, DC: Brookings.

7. Coordination, Moderation and Institutional Balancing (Nov 20-Dec 4)
   • Alesina and Rosenthal. Chapters 4-6.
   • Erikson, Robert S. 1988. ``The Puzzle of Midterm Loss.'' Journal of Politics 50:1012-1029.

   Alesina, Alberto, Nouriel Roubini and Gerald D. Cohen. 1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press. Chapters 1-3.

   Campbell, James E. 1991. ``The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868-1988.'' Journal of Politics 53 (May): 477-487.

   Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton UP.

   Nordhaus, William D. 1989. ``Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle (with discussion).'' Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2:1-68.

• About this document ...