Speaker: |
David A. Kessler |
Title: |
The SIR Infection Model as a Time-Dependent Random Walk |
Abstract: |
The SIR Infection Model as a Time-Dependent Random Walk We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of epidemics in the vicinity of the threshold infectivity. We derive the distribution of total outbreak size in the limit of large population size $N$. This is accomplished by mapping the problem to the first passage time of a random walker subject to a drift that increases linearly with time. We recover the scaling results of Ben-Naim and Krapivsky that the effective maximal size of the outbreak scales as $N^{2/3}$, with the average scaling as $N^{1/3}$, with an explicit form for the scaling function.
Download talk (pdf) |
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Organizing Committee
Anna Amirdjanova,
Department of Statistics,
University of Michigan Charlie Doering,
Departments of Mathematics and
Physics & MCTP
University of Michigan
Len Sander,
Department of Physics
& MCTP
University of Michigan
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