Speaker:

Tim Newman

Title:

Strong Fluctuations in Extinction and Population Cycles

Abstract:

In this talk I will describe the application of stochastic processes to two fundamental problems in population dynamics: i) extinction statistics, and ii) predator-prey interactions. In the first application I show that a proper account of fluctuations is crucial for estimating extinction risk for small to intermediate populations. In the second application I show that fluctuations can generate large sustained cycles through a novel amplification mechanism. This amplification mechanism has direct relevance to a range of other biological systems, including biochemical networks and disease dynamics.

References:
Extinction times and moment closure in the stochastic logistic process T. J. Newman, J.-B. Ferdy, and C. Quince, Theoretical Population Biology 65, 115:126 (2004).
Predator-prey cycles from resonant amplification of demographic stochasticity A. J. McKane and T. J. Newman, Physical Review Letters 94, 218102 (2005).

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